New Orleans at Atlanta
The Saints are coming off a thrilling overtime victory over Washington, while the Falcons are limping into this one off an embarrassing defeat from Philadelphia. New Orleans protects and pressures better, as well as more effective in the red zone. They also have a significant turnover edge on the season. I don't see how the Falcons can win this one. Their pass defense is porous, which plays into the Saints strength, and they'll probably be without Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and two-three starting offensive linemen. Final score 38-10 New Orleans.
Green Bay at Chicago
Boy, the wind has dropped from the sails of the Bears ship. They barely beat a weak St. Louis last week. Jay Cutler has been a turnover machine, especially in the red zone, which coincidently the Packers have a major edge. Plus, the Bears are most likely playing without game changer Devin Hester. Although the Packers are on a short week, I expect them to win it. Final score 28-17 Green Bay.
Denver at Indianapolis
This is an intriguing matchup. The Colts can lock up home field advantage with a win, while the Broncos can increase their playoff odds by pulling off the upset. Both teams protect the quarterback well, and pressure the opposing passer. They also create turnovers, while protecting the football. The big difference is the red zone, as Denver is middling in those situations, while Indianapolis is one of the top teams in converting their chances into touchdowns. It will be close, but the Colts will pull it out. Final score 28-24 Indianapolis.
Buffalo at Kansas City
The opposite of the previous preview. This game is about who will have the higher pick come April. Both teams are lousy at protecting the passer, and have allowed over 50% conversion rate against in the red zone. They also have positive turnover differentials. Kansas City is more effective in the red zone, but the Bills are far more effective at pressuring the passer. I see a lot of three and outs in this game with the Bills on top. Final score 17-10 Buffalo.
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