Week 8 Fantasy Preview- TE

1. Dallas Clark

2. Jeremy Shockey

3. Tony Gonzalez

4. Antonio Gates

5. Owen Daniels

6. Jason Witten

7. Zach Miller

8. Brent Celek

9. Visanthe Shiancoe

10. Kevin Boss

11. John Carlson

12. Marcaedes Lewis

13. Todd Heap

14. Vernon Davis

15. Tony Fasano

16. Alge Crumpler

17. Greg Olsen

18. Dante Rosario

19. Dustin Keller

20. Martellus Bennett

Week 8 Fantasy Preview- WR

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Miles Austin

3. TJ Houshmandzadeh

4. Reggie Wayne

5. Mike Sims-Walker

6. Marques Colston

7. Donald Driver

8. Roddy White

9. Sidney Rice

10. Vincent Jackson

11. Brandon Marshall

12. DeSean Jackson

13. Braylon Edwards

14. Andre Johnson

15. Percy Harvin

16. Steve Smith, NYG

17. Anquan Boldin 

18. Calvin Johnson

19. Devin Hester

20. Greg Jennings

21. Lee Evans

22. Steve Smith, Car

23. Lance Moore

24. Bernard Berrian

25. Derrick Mason

26. Nate Burleson

27. Pierre Garcon

28. Michael Crabtree

29. Hakeem Nicks

30. Steve Breaston

31. Johnny Knox

32. Jeremy Maclin

33. Jacoby Jones

34. Patrick Crayton

35. Austin Collie

36. Torry Holt

37. Brian Hartline

38. Jerecho Cotchery

39. Danny Amendola

40. Devery Henderson

Week 8 Fantasy Preview- RB

1. Maurice Jones-Drew

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Chris Johnson

4. Steven Jackson

5. Michael Turner

6. Ronnie Brown

7. Matt Forte

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Kevin Smith

10. Julius Jones

11. Thomas Jones

12. Brandon Jacobs

13. Darren Sproles

14. Frank Gore

15. Steve Slaton

16. Pierre Thomas

17. Rickey Williams

18. Knowshon Moreno

19. Ray Rice

20. LaDanian Tomlinson

21. LeSean McCoy

22. Ryan Grant

23. Joseph Addai

24. Justin Fargas

25. Correll Buckhalter

26. Ahmad Bradshaw

27. Beanie Wells

28. Marian Barber

29. Marshawn Lynch

30. Tim Hightower

31. Jamal Lewis

32. Reggie Bush

33. Jonathan Stewart

34. Mike Hart

35. Chester Taylor

36. Shonn Greene

37. Fred Jackson

38. Felix Jones

39. Willis McGahee

40. Michael Bush

Week 8 Fantasy Preview- QB

1. Peyton Manning

2. Drew Brees

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Matt Schaub

5. Tony Romo

6. Brett Favre

7. Kurt Warner

8. Matt Ryan

9. Matt Hasselbeck

10. Jay Cutler

11. Joe Flacco

12. David Garrard

13. Kyle Orton

14. Philip Rivers

15. Donovan McNabb

16. Eli Manning

17. Chad Henne

18. Matthew Stafford

19. Mark Sanchez

20. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Week 8 NFL Preview- Part 4

Carolina at Arizona

Both of these teams have similar numbers across the board, especially in quarterback protection and pressure.  Carolina is slightly better in conversion rate in the red zone, but Arizona is better at preventing red zone scores.  The big difference between the teams is turnover differential, as the Cardinals are Even, while the Panthers are -14.  Final score 28-10 Arizona.

Minnesota at Green Bay

I heard that there was a homecoming of sorts in this game.  Minnesota is vastly superior in red zone offense and defense, while the Packers have had trouble, outside of the Cleveland game, keeping Aaron Rodgers clean.  This should be a close game, and I wouldn't be surprised if either team wins.  I can see Brett Favre take it up a notch, like a few weeks ago, or throwing multiple picks.  Final score 31-28 Minnesota.

Atlanta at New Orleans

Another good game on the slate.  Both teams keep their quarterbacks clean, and do a solid job at pressuring the passer.  However, New Orleans is vastly superior in the red zone, moving the football- averaging 100 more yards per game, and turnovers.  Final score 38-27 New Orleans

Week 8 NFL Preview- Part 3

San Francisco at Indianapolis

I think the 49ers move to Alex Smith was good for the remainder of the season in order to see if he's the quarterback of the future.  However, this week is too much to ask.  Peyton Manning has taken just 12 hits all season, while leading the Colts to an additional 130 yards per game.  Also, the Cols are +8 in the turnover department.  Final score 34-17 Indianapolis.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

It truly amazes me how horribly Tennessee has played this season.  I thought they were a .500 team that played above their heads last season.  It's tough to pick a team that's given up 25 red zone chances and -12 in turnover differential, while making a quarterback change.  And I won't, despite how terrible the Jaguars have played in their previous two games.  I think it'll be a shoot out.  Final score 38-31 Jacksonville.

Oakland at San Diego

Based upon the numbers, San Diego should win this game handily.  However, the Raiders gave the Chargers a run for their money in Week 1.  The Chargers average 130 yards more per game, while having a significant edge in turnover differential (+4 to -10).  The game should be closer than most would think, and maybe even what the score will indicate.  Final score 24-13 San Diego.

Week 8 NFL Preview- Part 2

Cleveland at Chicago

I was surprised to see that both of these teams have generated about the same amount of pressure thus far this season.  However, that was the only surprise.  The Bears have gained about 90 more yards per game, while the Browns have given up about 80 more yards per game.  Also, the Browns have scored only four red zone touchdowns this season.  The Bears should win this game handily.  Final score 35-10 Chicago.

Seattle at Dallas

The numbers indicate that these teams are very close.  The pressure, red zone, and turnovers are similar.  The major difference is yards per game.  The Cowboys have gained about 110 more yards per game.  That difference is substantial enough to sway the game in their direction.  Final score 28-24 Dallas.

St Louis at Detroit

Talk about a game between the have-nots.  Both teams have given up too many hits to their respective quarterbacks, and allowed too many red zone scores.  The main difference between these teams is red zone touchdowns and turnover differential.  The Rams have scored just four red zone touchdowns, while the Lions have scored seven.  And the Rams are -11 in the turnover department, while the Lions are -4.  This game could be a wild, high-scoring affair, or a low-scoring mess.  I'll take the latter.  Final score 10-3 Detroit.

Week 8 NFL Game Preview- Part 1

Miami at New York Jets

In a scheduling quirk, the Jets and Dolphins meet for the second time in four weeks.  However, this time, the Jets are coming in with injury concerns.  Both receivers Jerecho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards are banged up, and key cogs Leon Washington and Kris Jenkins are out for the season.  The numbers give the Jets a slight edge, but the injury concerns are too great for me.  Still, it should be a good game, but not as high scoring as the Week 5.  Final score 24-17 Miami.

New York Giants at Philadelphia

This has the makings of a classic NFC East matchup, as both teams are vying for first place.  The Giants have a slight edge in yards gained and allowed, and have done a better job at protecting the quarterback.  Both teams are good at harassing the quarterback.  The difference between these two teams is the red zone and turnovers.  The Giants have had issues scoring and giving up red zone touchdowns.  It's an issue I've mentioned since Week 5.  The Eagles are a whopping +11 in turnover differential, while the Giants are +2.  It should be a close, low-scoring matchup.  Final score 17-14 Philadelphia.

Denver at Baltimore

Another potentially close game.  Both teams are coming off bye weeks, do a relatively good job at protecting and pressuring the quarterback.  Baltimore has been better at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while giving up way too many red zone chances with 21.  Turnovers are the difference, as Denver is +7, while Baltimore is  +2.  Final score 23-20 Denver.

Houston at Buffalo

This game should be a little closer than most people think.  Andre Johnson may not play this game due to a bruised lung, so it takes away a target from Matt Schaub.  Both teams give up too many hits to the quarterback, and too many touchdowns in the red zone.  The difference is red zone scoring.  Houston has scored on over 50% of its opportunities, while Buffalo is under 30% in their chances.  Final score 31-20 Houston.

Week 7 Fantasy Review- TE

Here's the tight end fall out.   I missed more than normal on this position this week, especially Chris Cooley, due to his possible season ending injury.  His back up Fred Davis had a nice game, and should be a good play for the foreseeable future, except this week because its his bye week.  As always, the pre-game ranks are in parenthesis.

1.  Vernon Davis (14)

2. Owen Daniels (12)

3. Fred Davis (No Ranking)

4. Jeremy Shockey (16)

5. Dallas Clark (1)

6. Benjamin Watson (9)

7. Gary Barnidge (No Ranking)

8. JP Fosch (No Ranking)

9. Jason Witten (11)

10. Antonio Gates (3)

11. Tony Gonzalez (4)

12. Donald Lee (No Ranking)

13. Michael Gaines (No Ranking)

14. Heath Miller (5)

15. Kevin Boss (17)

16. Dante Rosario (No Ranking)

17.  Gijon Robinson (No Ranking)

18. Martellus Bennett (No Ranking)

19. Chris Baker (No Ranking)

20. Visanthe Shiancoe (8)

Week 7 Fantasy Review- WR

I had a 55% ranking rate.  I missed on Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin.  I thought Bernard Berrian wasn't going to get hurt, and Harvin wasn't going to play.  Also, four players tied for 40th with Greg Caramillo, including Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Maclin, players I ranked.  As always, pre-game ranking in parenthesis.

1. Miles Austin (21)

2. DeSean Jackson (12)

3. Chad Ochocinco (18)

4. Vincent Jackson (5)

5. Wes Welker (9)

6. Donald Driver (13)

7. Reggie Wayne (1)

8. Devin Hester (29)

9. Hakeem Nicks (37)

10. Mike Wallace (36)

11. Lee Evans (33)

12. Marques Colston (4)

13. Sidney Rice (No Ranking)

14. David Clowney (No Ranking)

15. Sam Aiken (No Ranking)

16. Patric Crayton (No Ranking)

17. Antonio Bryant (No Ranking)

18. Roddy White (8)

19. Devin Thomas (No Ranking)

20. Percy Harvin (No Ranking)

21. Laverneus Coles (No Ranking)

22. Steve Smith, Carolina (17)

23. Eric Weems (No Ranking)

24. Austin Collie (No Ranking)

25. Brian Hartline (No Ranking)

26. Larry Fitzgerald (2)

27. Devery Henderson (No Ranking)

28. Chris Henry (No Ranking)

29. Santana Moss (26)

30. Anquan Boldin (39)

31. Dwayne Bowe (11)

32. Randy Moss (3)

33. Andre Johnson (7)

34. Bobbie Wade (31)

35. Malcom Floyd (No Ranking)

36. Steve Smith, NYG (6)

37. James Jones (No Ranking)

38. Josh Morgan (No Ranking)

39. Sammie Stroughter (No Ranking)

40. Greg Camarillo (No Ranking)

Week 7 Fantasy Review- RB

I had a 75% ranking rate for the running backs this week.  I missed on Shonn Greene and Beanie Wells this week.  I didn't account for an injury to Leon Washington, and I thought he would have a nice game against Oakland.  Hope he heals up for 2010.  Wells looked very good against the Giants on Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took over the starting job for Week 8.  Here's the top 40 with the pre-game ranking in parenthesis.

1. Rickey Williams (33)

2. Shonn Greene (No Ranking)

3. Cedric Benson (8)

4. Ryan Grant (13)

5. DeAngelo Williams (1)

6. Thomas Jones (11)

7. Adrian Peterson (3)

8. Steve Slaton (10)

9. Darren Sproles (19)

10. Brandon Jacobs (7)

11. Steven Jackson (17)

12. Beanie Wells (No Ranking)

13. Joseph Addai (18)

14. Michael Turner (2)

15. Ronnie Brown (4)

16. Laurence Maroney (12)

17. Marshawn Lynch (26)

18. Chad Simpson (No Ranking)

19. Justin Fargas (25)

20. Reggie Bush (No Ranking)

21. Mike Bell (No Ranking)

22. LaDanian Tomlinson (6)

23. Justin Snelling (No Ranking)

24. Jason Wright (No Ranking)

25. LeSean McCoy (34)

26. Tim Hightower (35)

27. Donald Brown (23)

28. Jamal Lewis (39)

29. Clinton Portis (16)

30. Larry Johnson (24)

31. Derrick Ward (No Ranking)

32. Cadillac Williams (20)

33. Frank Gore (5)

34. Marian Barber (21)

35. Pierre Thomas (28)

36. Jonathan Stewart (22)

37. Rashard Mendenhall (9)

38. Matt Forte (14)

39. Brandon Jackson (No Ranking)

40. Jamaal Charles (No Ranking)

Week 7 Fantasy Review- QB

I had an 80% ranking rate this week, hitting on fifteen of my top 16.  Also, I missed Shaun Hill, because of ineffectiveness, and was replaced by number eight Alex Smith.  Hill lost his job to Smith next week, as well.  I'll have my pre-game ranking in parenthesis.

1. Carson Palmer (14)

2. Tony Romo (16)

3. Phillip Rivers (11)

4. Aaron Rodgers (2)

5. Peyton Manning (1)

6. Tom Brady (4)

7. Drew Brees (5)

8. Alex Smith (No Ranking)

9. Matt Schaub (13)

10. Jason Campbell (No Ranking)

11. Mark Sanchez (No Ranking)

12. Kurt Warner (3)

13. Ben Roethlisberger (6)

14. Donovan McNabb (10)

15. Brett Favre (8)

16. Ryan Fitzpatrick (No Ranking)

17. Matt Ryan (7)

18. Jay Cutler (9)

19. Jake Delhomme (19)

20. Eli Manning (12)

Week 7 Game Review- Part 4

New Orleans at Miami

Talk about a roller coaster game.  Just about 750 total yards between the teams, combining for over 70 points.  The telling stats are the red zone conversion percentages.  New Orleans was 80%, while Miami was 50%.  That was the difference in the ball game, because the Dolphins sacked Drew Brees four times, while forcing 4 turnovers, with a +1 differential.

Arizona at New York Giants

This was another game with a surprising outcome.  The Giants created more pressure on Kurt Warner (two sacks on seven hits) than the Cardinals did to Eli Manning (three sacks on five hits).  The penalties and time of possession were even, the Giants out gained the Cardinals by about 40 total yards.  The biggest difference was turnovers and red zone conversions.  Arizona was +2, while the red zone conversion percentage bit the Giants again, as the Cardinals were 75%, while the Giants were only 50%.

Philadelphia at Washington

It is unusual to see a team get walloped despite going 67% in the red zone, without allowing an attempt, with half as many penalties, a time of possession advantage, and out gaining their opponent.  But that's what happened to Washington last night.  The game hinged on two monster DeSean Jackson touchdowns, and a harassing Eagles defense which sacked Jason Campbell six times on nine hits, and forced four Washington turnovers.  The Eagles need to be more consistent on offense if they want to beat the Giants next week, while the Redskins need to actually use draft picks, and not sell them for veterans, because their offensive line was terrible last night.

Week 7 Game Review- Part 3

Buffalo at Carolina

Based upon yardage, quarterback hits, and time of possession, Carolina should have won this game handily.  They gained nearly 260 more yards, hit Ryan Fitzpatrick eight times, and held the ball for about ten additional minutes.  Where they lost the game was with six additional penalties, and giving the ball away four times, while the Bills didn't turn the ball over once.  They need to replace Jake Delhomme, and haven't adequately addressed the need in recent years.  The glimmer of hope for the Panthers is that the 2010 NFL draft should be loaded at the quarterback position.

Chicago at Cincinnati

The outcome of the game was the most surprising of the week.  I believed it would be the second best game, following the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game.  However, the Bengals decimated a formidable Bears team.  Carson Palmer took just two hits all game.  But three numbers stick out: the 170 yard advantage, +4, and 87% red zone conversion percentage all in favor of the Bengals.  If Cincinnati's Pittsburgh game wasn't an eye opener, than this game certainly was.

Atlanta at Dallas

I missed this game, and when I reviewed my notes, I forgot to consider Dallas was at home, coming off of a bye week.  That's a huge advantage.  Turnovers, yards, and penalties were huge factors in the Cowboys victory.  Also, they created pressure, as they sacked Matt Ryan four times.  To top it off, the Boys signed DeMarcus Ware to a monster contract extension to the tune of 40 million guaranteed!

Week 7 Game Review- Part 2

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

Based on the numbers the Vikings put up, they win on most days.  The Steelers defense turned the game around.  They were +1 in the turnover department and sacked Brett Favre four times.  The number that stands out is the eight additional penalties called on the Vikings.  I watched this game, and one weak leg-whipping call took away a touchdown from Minnesota., which led to a fumble return for a score.  So, the outcome of the game could have been different.

New England at Tampa Bay

This was a blowout.  The Patriots dominated, gaining 170 more yards, were +1 in the turnover differential, and didn't allow a red zone chance.  The Patriots also kept Tom Brady relatively clean, while allowing just one sack on two hits.  Too bad England has only witnessed lopsided games in the games over the pond.

New York Jets at Oakland

Another blowout performed by a good team over a lousy team.  It was a total domination, as the Jets gained 180 more yards, forced four turnovers, held the ball for 12 additional minutes, and kept Mark Sanchez clean- only one sack on one hit.  The bad news for the Jets is they lost Leon Washington for the season.  He's a game-changing player.  They will certainly miss him.

Week 7 Game Review- Part 1

I missed some games this week.  The tight match ups I figured incorrectly.  I will do better next week.

San Francisco at Houston

The numbers that stand out in this game are the additional red zone opportunities Houston had, the +1 turnover ratio in the Texans favor, and the four additional penalties called on the 49ers.  That last number surprised me the most, not only was it four more, but 11 total.  I didn't believe a Mike Singletary coached team would be so undisciplined.

Green Bay at Cleveland

It took the Packers a little longer to push the gas on the Browns, than expected.  But when they did, they dismantled their opponent in a hurry.  The total yards discrepancy between the teams jumped at me (320 yard advantage to the Packers), while the +2 turnover differential in favor of Green Bay did not surprise me.  I was glad to see Aaron Rodgers have a game where his line didn't allow him to be punished by defenders- as he only took one hit.

San Diego at Kansas City

The Chargers took advantage of solid defensive play with three picks on Matt Cassel and sacked him four times, while limiting the Chiefs to 203 total yards.  The number that jumped was 200 yards gained difference between the teams, and the Chargers taking four more drives into the Red Zone.  Though, against better teams, they have to improve upon their 40% conversion rate.

Indianapolis at St. Louis

Another game between the haves and the have-nots.  Peyton Manning's astonishing season continues, with no turnovers, didn't take any hits, while converting on all three of their visits to the Red Zone.  All this while out-gaining the hapless Rams by nearly 120 yards.  Thus, far Manning is my MVP.

Week 7 Fantasy Preview- TE

1. Dallas Clark
2. Chris Cooley
3. Antonio Gates
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Heath Miller
6. Brent Celek
7. Jermichael Finley
8. Visanthe Shiancoe
9. Benjamin Watson
10. Kellen Winslow, Jr.
11. Jason Witten
12. Owen Daniels
13. Sean Ryan
14. Vernon Davis
15. Greg Olsen
16. Jeremy Shockey
17. Kevin Boss
18. Anthony Fasano
19. Zach Miller
20. Dustin Keller

Week 7 Fantasy Preview- WR

1. Reggie Wayne
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Randy Moss
4. Marques Colston
5. Vincent Jackson
6. Steve Smith, NYG
7. Andre Johnson
8. Roddy White
9. Wes Welker
10. Greg Jennings
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. DeSean Jackson
13. Donald Driver
14. Braylon Edwards
15. Bernard Berrian
16. Hines Ward
17. Steve Smith, Car
18. Chad Ochocinco
19. Santonio Holmes
20. Mario Manningham
21. Miles Austin
22. Lance Moore
23. Isaac Bruce
24. Kevin Walter
25. Steve Breaston
26. Santana Moss
27. Jeremy Maclin
28. Pierre Garcon
29. Devin Hester
30. Johnny Knox
31. Bobby Wade
32. Mohammed Massaquoi
33. Lee Evans
34. Ted Ginn
35. Jacoby Jones
36. Mike Wallace
37. Hakeem Nicks
38. Roy Williams
39. Anquan Boldin
40. Terrell Owens

Week 7 Fantasy Preview- RB

1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Michael Turner
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Ronnie Brown
5. Frank Gore
6. LaDanian Tomlinson
7. Brandon Jacobs
8. Cedric Benson
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Steve Slaton
11. Thomas Jones
12. Laurence Maroney
13. Ryan Grant
14. Matt Forte
15. Brian Westbrook
16. Clinton Portis
17. Steven Jackson
18. Joseph Addai
19. Darren Sproles
20. Cadillac Williams
21. Marian Barber
22. Jonathan Stewart
23. Donald Brown
24. Larry Johnson
25. Justin Fargas
26. Marshawn Lynch
27. Leon Washington
28. Pierre Thomas
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Tashard Choice
31. Fred Jackson
32. Glen Coffee
33. Rickie Williams
34. LeSean McCoy
35. Tim Hightower
36. Chester Taylor
37. Felix Jones
38. Willie Parker
39. Jamal Lewis
40. Kevin Faulk

Week 7 Fantasy Preview- QB

1. Peyton Manning
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Kurt Warner
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Matt Ryan
8. Brett Favre
9. Jay Cutler
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Phillip Rivers
12. Eli Manning
13. Matt Schaub
14. Carson Palmer
15. Chad Henne
16. Tony Romo
17. Shaun Hill
18. Matt Cassel
19. Jake Delhomme
20. Derek Anderson

Week 7 NFL Preview- Part 4

New Orleans at Miami
Right now, the Saints are one of the top two teams in the NFL. The other being Indianapolis. Unfortunately, the Dolphins have been a victim of last season's success, playing a first place schedule. Where the Saints win this game is tremendous ability to capitalize on their numerous red zone chances and turnover differential. The Dolphins have a solid defense, but they won't be able to contain the Saints all game. Final score 31-14 New Orleans.

Arizona at New York Giants
This game will be much closer than people would think at first glance. The Giants still have issues on converting their red zone chances into touchdowns, and have allowed a whopping 15 touchdowns on just 19 opportunities on defense. The difference here is yardage and turnovers. It will be close, but the G-men ultimately prevail. Final score 24-21 New York.

Philadelphia at Washington
The Redskins organization is a mess, and the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing defeat. Typically, Washington plays the Eagles tough (beat them twice last season), but I don't see a new offensive coordinator making a difference. The acquisition of Will Witherspoon should help contain Chris Cooley to a more modest game, as opposing tight ends have had their way versus the Eagles. Plus, the Birds have a huge edge in the turnover department(+7 to -4). Final score 28-13 Philadelphia

Week 7 NFL Preview- Part 3

Buffalo at Carolina
The stats surprised me, as I analyzed the numbers. Both teams are close in terms of yardage, total red zone chances, allowed over 50% conversion rate in red zone chances against. Both teams have trouble maintaining possession of the ball. The numbers that have me leaning towards Carolina are quarterback hits allowed (47! allowed by the Bills) and Buffalo's in ability to convert their red zone chances into touchdowns. Plus, Trent Edwards is out-due to the pressure. Final score 20-10 Carolina.

Chicago at Cincinnati
I expect a close one here. This is the second best game on the slate this week. The numbers are virtually identical for pressure, yards, and red zone chances for and against. Cincinnati has been slightly better in their red zone chances, both for and against, but the key is turnovers. Chicago is -1, while the Bengals are -3. I expect a hard fought game, but the Bears will prevail. Final score 24-21 Chicago.

Atlanta at Dallas
Typically, I like teams coming off their bye weeks, but the numbers skew too much in Atlanta's favor. Granted, Dallas does average 90 more yards per game on offense, but Atlanta keeps Matt Ryan clean, only seven hits through five games, is much more efficient offensively and defensively in the red zone, and have a huge advantage in turnover differential (+5 to -4). Final score 28-17 Atlanta.

Week 7 NFL Preview- Part 2

Minnesota at Pittsburgh
This is probably the best game on the slate this week. Both teams have created many red zone chances for themselves, while limiting their opponents opportunities. And they've allowed their quarterbacks to take too many hits. In the end the biggest difference is turnover differential. Minnesota is +8, while the Steelers are -5. That tips the scale to the Vikings, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers win, considering the return of Troy Polamalu. Final score 24-21 Minnesota.

New England at Tampa Bay
I don't expect the Londonites to see a competitive game here. It seems that Tom Brady is back, and Bill Belichik is keeping his foot on the gas for a full 60 minutes again. The biggest difference is the yards per game stats. The Patriots have gained on average 130 more per game, while the Bucs have allowed 80 more per game. It should be a blowout. Final score 45-7 New England.

New York Jets at Oakland
The Jets head into this game following a tough loss to Buffalo, while the Raiders are soaring after their win against the Eagles. I don't see the momentum lasting for either side. I think the Raiders will keep it close, but they've gained 100 fewer yards per game, while allowing a whopping 25 red zone chances this season. Final score 20-13 New York.

Week 7 NFL Preview- Part 1

I know its been awhile since I've done one of these. Week 5 I was 9-5 on my predictions. I'll attempt to do better this week. On to my prognosis!

San Francisco at Houston
Like most of Houston's games, they'll try to make it a track meet, since they're capable of putting up a lot of points, but give up a lot, as well. Both teams hit the quarterback, while allowing too many hits. Based on the yards gained and red zone attempts, this game skews into Houston's favor. Final score 31-21 Houston.

Green Bay at Cleveland
The numbers are totally in the Packers favor in this game. Cleveland has three times as many turnovers, given up double the red zone chances, and allows 110 more yards per game. Couple that with Green Bay averaging 120 more yards per game offensively, I see a blow out. If I'm a Packers fan, I would be concerned with the 25 sacks Aaron Rodgers has taken this season. That's way too many. Final score 38-10 Green Bay.

San Diego at Kansas City
I was surprised to see the numbers were relatively close for both teams. The Chiefs even have the turnover differential edge (+4 to +1). However, the the stark difference is yards gained per game, and San Diego wallops Kansas City in that category by 180 yards on average. It will be a closer game than people think, but the Chargers should win it. Final score 20-17 San Diego.

Indianapolis at St Louis
I feel bad for Steve Spagnulo. This is a floundering, hapless team that is in need for major upgrades at several positions, quarterback being the greatest priority. The Colts are coming off a bye week, and Peyton Manning is arguably having the finest season of his distinguished career. This should be a romp, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jim Sorgi takes some snaps once the game is in hand. Final score 41-3 Indianapolis.

Eagles Reactions

Talk about a trap game. That's what happened to the Eagles. They saw what occurred in the Raiders-Giants game, and played down to their opponent's level. Also, Oakland exploited several of the Eagles weaknesses, namely a makeshift offensive line, and the void at middle linebacker. Trotter looked slow covering Zach Miller on that touchdown.
I'm glad they made the move to acquire Will Witherspoon. He's a solid player, and should be rejuvenated moving from the hapless Rams to a team that has an opportunity to make a playoff run. It's sad to see a player with Brandon Gibson's potential to go, but to acquire talent, sometimes a team must give up some potential.

Week 5 NFL Preview- Part 4

Same as previous posts.

Houston at Arizona
If I were a betting man, I would steer clear of this game. The yards gained and allowed are virtually identical, and have allowed a lot of pressure to their respective quarterbacks. Houston is 46% in converting red zone chances into touchdowns, while the Cardinals are 50%. In terms of allowing red zone touchdowns, the Texans are 71%, while Arizona is 50%. And the Texans are +1 in turnovers, which is better than Arizona's -2. The numbers are close, so I'll take the team coming off its bye week. Final score 34-31 Arizona.

Indianapolis at Tennessee
In my opinion, Peyton Manning is the MVP of the league right now, and the Colts are firing on all cylanders. Offensively, Indianapolis keeps Manning clean and average 60 more yards per game. I think Tennessee will put up a fight, but the difference will be turnovers, where they are -7 to the Colts +6 ratio. That will be the difference. Final score 28-17 Indianapolis.

New York Jets at Miami
This game will be closer than the prognosticators think. The total yards for and against are negligible, while both teams do a good job at harassing the opposing quarterback, and play well in the red zone. Another game where turnovers are the difference, as the Jets are Even, while Miami is -3. It will be close. Final score 20-17 New York Jets.

Week 5 NFL Preview- Part 3

Same breakdown as the previous two posts.

Atlanta at San Francisco
This is an intriguing matchup. The numbers indicate this should be a close game. The Falcons keep Matt Ryan clean and and have gained about 40 more yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers do an excellent job at pressuring the quarterback and allowed 100 fewer yards per game. Both teams have an excellent takeaway differential (+3 for Atlanta, +5 for San Francisco). In the end, San Francisco does just enough to win. Final score16-13 San Francisco.

Jacksoville at Seattle
Both teams allow their quarterbacks to be hit too often, and the Jaguars have a minimal yards gained per game advantage. The Seahawks have been more efficient defensively in the red zone, while the Jagsare much more effective scoring in the red zone. In the end, the turnover differential is the deciding factor between the two teams, as Jacksonville is +4, while Seattle is -4. Final score 31-21 Jacksonville.

New England at Denver
At the beginning of the season, I was sure this would be a cake walk for the Patriots. However, looking at the numbers, the Broncos have been much more efficient with their opportunities on both sides of the ball. The most surpising similarity is the yards gained per game is about ten yards per game, which is almost negligible. In the end, the Broncos have created double the turnovers of the Patriots. I think it will be close, but at home, the Broncos prevail. Final score 17-14 Denver.

Week 5 NFL Preview- Part 2

Same breakdown as the previous post.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
I just heard Donovan McNabb is going to play on Sunday, so his experience and presence will be welcome. The big differences in these teams is total yards both for and against, as the Eagles have gained over 100 yards per game, while the Bucs have allowed 130 more yards per game. Also, the Eagles have generated moderate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the the Bucs have allowed a whopping 30 hits on their passers through just four games. The Birds should win this game handily. Final score 35-10 Philadelphia.

Washington at Carolina
A game between two bad teams. Both teams have had trouble moving the ball and each have allowed nine quarterback sacks. Washington has a minimal yards per game, while pressuring the opposing quarterback more successfully. Also, the Panthers are an abysmal -8 in turnover differential, but that number is skewed because of the opener. The numbers are slightly more in the Redskins favor, but I tend to favor teams coming off their bye week. Final score 16-13 Carolina.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
This should be a good game. Both teams are at the top of their division, get after the opposing quarterback, and are efficient in red zone, while effective at stiffling the opposing teams from scoring touchdowns. The differences between the teams are Baltimore's gained 100 more yards per game, while Cincinnati's allowed 50 more yards per game, and turnover differential (-2 for Cincinnait, +2 for Baltimore). Those differences sway the game in the Ravens direction. Final score 28-17 Baltimore.

Pittsburgh at Detroit
I was shocked at looking at the numbers. These teams are a lot closer than at first glance. Both have allowed a high sack rate, have negative turnover differential, and are about 50% in their red zone conversions. The difference is in the yards, as the Steelers have gained almost 70 more per game, while the Lions have allowed 80 more per game. Boy, the Steelers miss Troy Polamalu. Final score 24-20 Pittsburgh.

Week 5 NFL Preview- Part 1

I know I'm putting this up a couple days earlier than normal, but I'm going to have limited computer access over the next ten days or so. But I'll post as much info as possible.

Cleveland at Buffalo
These are two lousy teams. Both allow way to many hits, yards, and red zone chances with high conversion rates. I can see this game going one of two ways: shoot out or a game of field goals, since both teams have converted only 33% of their red zone chances into touchdowns. The difference between the teams is turnovers. Buffalo is -4 on the season, which is bad, but Cleveland is worse at -7. I'll take the Bills in a shootout, but it wouldn't shock me if the Browns pull the "upset." Final score 31-28 Buffalo.

Dallas at Kansas City
After glancing at the numbers, I was surprise about how close these teams are on the defensive side of the ball. The total yards allowed was virtually identical, caused four turnovers, and about the same number of sacks (six and five, respectively). Dallas differentiates itself by allowing just a 40% red zone conversion rate against, compared to 75%. Offensively, it isn't even close. The Cowboys have gained over 150 more yards per game. Plus, their line keeps Tony Romo relatively clean, by allowing just eight sacks. Final score 24-14 Dallas.

Minnesota at St. Louis
This is a game between two teams on the opposite ends of the NFL spectrum with the Vikings vying for a Super Bowl and the Rams in the Bradford-McCoy derby. The only similarity is the sack and hit numbers taken by their quarterbacks. They are very close, but after yesterday's game, it appears that the Vikings line is beginning to jell. The Vikings should dominate this game, based on turnover differential alone (+5 to -8). Final score 41-7 Minnesota.

Oakland at New York Giants
Another game with teams on opposite poles of the landscape. I was surprised that the pressure both teams give to the opposing quarterbacks is close, but that's about it. The telling numbers are the yards, as the Giants have gained nearly 200 more per game (That was not a misprint.), while the Raiders have allowed about 120 more per game. It's been said before, but JaMarcus Russell needs to be replaced. That offense has been sputtering all season long with him at the helm. Also, I need to mention a number that Giants fans need to take note of, because it be concerning to them, since the teams they've played haven't been the cream of the NFL crop. They are only 24% in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season. It won't affect them in this game, but I wonder if it haunts them against New Orleans. Final score 31-3 New York Giants.

Quarter Season Power Rankings

Here's my breakdown at the quarter turn.

1. Indianapolis
2. New Orleans
3. New York Giants
4. Baltimore
5. New York Jets
6. Minnesota
7. San Francisco
8. New England
9. Philadelphia
10. Denver
11. Cincinnati
12. Atlanta
13. Pittsburgh
14. Chicago
15. San Diego
16. Green Bay
17. Jacksonville
18. Dallas
19. Arizona
20. Houston
21. Miami
22. Seattle
23. Detroit
24. Carolina
25. Buffalo
26. Washington
27. Tennessee
28. Oakland
29. Tampa Bay
30. Kansas City
31. St. Louis
32. Cleveland

Week 4 Fantasy Review- TE

I had a 70% ranking rate with the Tight Ends.  Two Detroit Lions showed up- Will Heller and Brandon Pettigrew- but with Matt Stafford's status uncertain, I wouldn't risk a waiver move to pick one of them up.  Also, this is the second week in a row Sean Ryan has had a nice game.  He's been getting targets, and looks like a solid bye week fill-in.

1. Antonio Gates (4)

2. Heath Miller (8)

3. Jermichael Finley (No Ranking)

4. Chris Cooley (2)

5. Will Heller (No Ranking)

6. Sean Ryan (No Ranking)

7. Vernon Davis (10)

8. Steve Heiden (No Ranking)

9. Dallas Clark (1)

10. Kellen Davis (No Ranking)

11. Visanthe Shiancoe (13)

12. Greg Olsen (5)

13. Brandon Pettigrew (No Ranking)

14. Benjamin Watson (19)

15. Todd Heap (12)

16. John Paul Foschi

17. Owen Daniels (3)

18. Kevin Boss (15)

19. Jeremy Shockey (6)

20. Daniel Graham (No Ranking)

Week 4 Fantasy Review-WR

I vastly improved my ranking percentage this week, from just under 50% to 65%.  My top ten miss this week was Mohammed Massaquoi.  I thought Braylon Edwards was going to be the recipient of the long ball from the insertion of Derek Anderson in the lineup.  Instead, it was Massaquoi.  Another player of frustration is Greg Jennings.  This is the second time this season I've ranked him in the top 20, and he's failed to make the top 40.  I'm sure his fantasy owners can relate.

1. Steve Smith NYG (7)

2. Mike Sims-Walker (10)

3. Brandon Marshall (9)

4. Derrick Mason (26)

5. Chad Ochocinco (21)

6. Calvin Johnson (4)

7. Mohammed Massaquoi (No Ranking)

8. Santana Moss (14)

9. Reggie Wayne (1)

10. Bernard Berrian (37)

11. Sidney Rice (No Ranking)

12. Nate Washington (27)

13. Austin Collie (No Ranking)

14. Randy Moss (2)

15. Hines Ward (29)

16. Hakeem Nicks (No Ranking)

17. TJ Houshmandzadeh (20)

18. Antonio Bryant (No Ranking)

19. Jordy Nelson (No Ranking)

20. Kenny Britt (31)

21. Chris Chambers (No Ranking)

22. Josh Morgan (No Ranking)

23. Johnny Knox (33)

24. Jerecho Cotchery (22)

25. Pierre Garcon (32)

26. Brian Hartline (No Ranking)

27. Terrell Owens (38)

28. Josh Reed (No Ranking)

29. Andre Johnson (15)

30. Bobby Wade (35)

31. Lee Evans (19)

32. Sam Hurd (No Ranking)

33. Jacoby Jones (No Ranking)

34. Donald Driver (9)

35. Vincent Jackson (3)

36. Santonio Holmes (5)

37. Torry Holt (No Ranking)

38. Deion Branch (No Ranking)

39. Kevin Walter (28)

40. Wes Welker

Week 4 Fantasy Review- RB

Here's my ranking breakdown.  I had a 75% ranking rate on the top 40.  I missed two top ten runners this week in Kevin Smith and Mewelde Moore.  I didn't rank Smith, because I believed that he was going to sit out the week with a shoulder injury.  Moore was purely an oversight.  I should have figured with Willie Parker out of the game, he'd get have more touches.

1. Rashard Mendenhall (32)

2. Ronnie Brown (11)

3. Matt Forte (3)

4. Pierre Thomas (15)

5. Steve Slaton (7)

6. Kevin Smith (No Ranking)

7. Rickey Williams (28)

8. Joseph Addai (37)

9. Ray Rice (17)

10. Mewelde Moore (No Ranking)

11. Jerome Harrison (38)

12. Marian Barber (34)

13. Sammy Morris (No Ranking)

14. Knowshon Moreno (4)

15. Thomas Jones (26)

16. Ryan Grant (29)

17. Donald Brown (20)

18. Glen Coffee (12)

19. Clinton Portis (13)

20. Cadillac Williams (22)

21. Brandon Jacobs (2)

22. Maurice Jones-Drew (10)

23. Adrian Peterson (1)

24. Garrett Wolfe (No Ranking)

25. Chris Johnson (9)

26. Correll Buckhalter (21)

27. Willis McGahee (6)

28. Cedric Benson (5)

29. Steven Jackson (18)

30. Tashard Choice (16)

31. Fred Jackson (25)

32. Ahmad Bradshaw (No Ranking)

33. Owen Schmitt (No Ranking)

34. Larry Johnson (No Ranking)

35. Ryan Moats (No Ranking)

36. Rashad Jennings (No Ranking)

37. Marshawn Lynch (31)

38. Bernard Scott (No Ranking)

39. Fred Taylor (30)

40. Chester Taylor (33)

Week 4 Fantasy Review- QB

I like to revisit my rankings each week to see how close my predictions were to the actual results.  This week I my ranking rate was at 75%, but I missed on Trent Edwards and Drew Brees, both in my top ten.  I figured Brees would have a tough day, but if you drafted him, you're most likely starting him, except this week because it's his bye week.  Edwards was more of a sneaky play, because they've done well in the screen day, and historically, Lee Evans kills the Dolphins.  It didn't come to fruition.  As always, I'll have my pre-game ranking in parenthesis.

1. David Garrard (4)

2. Brett Favre (14)

3. Ben Roethlisberger (16)

4. Peyton Manning (1)

5. Philip Rivers (8)

6. Aaron Rodgers (9)

7. Tom Brady (2)

8. Eli Manning (3)

9. Jay Cutler (6)

10. Kerry Collins (11)

11. Derek Anderson (20)

12. Carson Palmer (13)

13. Kyle Orton (No Ranking)

14. Seneca Wallace (No Ranking)

15. Joe Flacco (12)

16. Matt Cassel (No Ranking)

17. Shaun Hill (15)

18. Matt Stafford (No Ranking)

19. Matt Schaub (10)

20. Josh Johnson (No Ranking)

Week 4 Game Reviews- Part 4

Same breakdown as the prior three posts.

St. Louis at San Francisco

This was a a dominating performance by the 49ers.  They didn't need much offense, gaining just 228 total yards, as they had three defensive scores, off of three turnovers, and had five sacks.  Plus, they converted their lone red zone opportunity into a touchdown.  Although, they were shut out, the Rams did have four sacks.  That's encouraging for this rebuilding franchise, but the 177 total yards and ten penalties are not.

San Diego and Pittsburgh

The Steelers should have wrapped this game up sooner, becaus=e they dominated the banged up Chargers.  They held the ball for 20 additional minutes, gained almost 500 total yards, converted all five of their red zone chances into touchdowns.  Penalties and turnovers kept the Chargers in the game, as they committed three fewer and were +1 in taking care of the ball.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Was there any sort of pre-game hype for this one?  I don't recall.  Joking aside, this was a tighter game than the highlights would lead one to believe.  The main difference was protection, because Brett Favre was hit once, compared to the eight sacks on nine hits that Aaron Rodgers took.  The Packers gained 90 additional yards, but the pressure led five additional penalties and -1 turnover differential.  Another difference was red zone conversions, as Minnesota scored touchdowns on all three of their chances, while the Packers whiffed on their two opportunities.

Week 4 Game Reviews- Part 3

I'll breakdown the games just like the previous two posts.

New York Jets at New Orleans

Just as I suspected, the Jets offense and the Saints offense would have a stalemate, while the New Orleans defense is ahead of New York's offense.  The proof is in the numbers, as the Saints were +3 in the turnover battle, had four sacks, and held the Jets to 100 fewer yards.

Buffalo at Miami

I was surprised not that Miami won the game with a quarterback making his first NFL start, but by how they dominated Buffalo.  They gained 130 additional yards, were 80% on the red zone conversions, while holding the Bills to 33%, and were +3 in turnover differential.  Plus, they held the ball for 14 additional minutes.  That's a recipe to win games.

Dallas at Denver

This was a tight game, and the stats bear that out.  Both quarterbacks took at least three sacks and about 20 yard difference in total yards.  Denver took 3 additional penalties, while Dallas held the ball for six more minutes.  The difference in this game was red zone conversions.  Dallas was 33%, while Denver was 50%.  In games that close, converting red zone chances into touchdowns is paramount.

Week 4 Game Reviews- Part 2

I'll break down this batch of games the same way as the previous group.

Detroit at Chicago

The final score doesn't indicate how close this game was.  The Lions held the ball for 13 additional minutes, gained over 120 more yards, and even had a 75% red zone conversion rate.  Where the Bears won it was with four fewer penalties, a +2 turnover differential, and had nine quarterback hits, including one that injured Matt Stafford.  And they even did better in the red zone with an 80% rate.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

This is one of those games where the numbers didn't translate into a victory for the Browns, even though they were slightly ahead of the Bengals in most categories, including 20 additional yards, one fewer penalty, three more quarterback hits, and even a three minute time of possession advantage.  Cincinnati's advantage was it converted on 50% of their red zone chances, while the Browns converted on 40% of theirs.

Seattle at Indianapolis

The Colts dominated this game, and the numbers back it up.  They tripled the hits on Seneca Wallace, gained 150 more yards, and had a +1 turnover differential.  Both teams had a 67% conversion rate in the red zone, but Indianapolis had double the opportunities.  If I were allowed a vote Peyton Manning would be the MVP at the quarter mark of the season.

New York Giants at Kansas City

Another Manning led team, another blowout.  The Giants did an excellent job of pressuring Matt Cassel, forcing five sacks on seven hits.  Where New York dominated was in total yards with 236 more.  The Chiefs showed signs of life with a 67% red zone conversion rate, while holding the Giants to a 25% rate.  And they had a +1 turnover rate against a very talented defense.

Week 4 Game Reviews- Part 1

I had another positive week, going 10-3 on picking the winners on Sunday's games.  There's another one today.  Has anyone heard Brett Favre is playing against Green Bay?  On to the game reviews.

Baltimore at New England

I figured this was going to be a close game, but I thought the numbers ultimately favored the Ravens.  They gained more yards than the Patriots, but New England took them in the other categories.  Joe Flacco took ten hits, compared to the three Tom Brady took.  New England held the ball ten minutes longer, and capitalized on its one additional red zone chance.  Also, the Ravens were called for almost double the number of penalties, which led to criticism of the officiating by some players following game.  I'm sure they'll hear from the Commish, if they haven't already.

Tampa Bay at Washington

Both of these teams are bad, and in need of rebuilding.  They created the same amount of the other's quarterback, and had about the same number of penalties.  Washington gained about 50 additional yards, but had a -2 turnover differential.  That number typically leads to losses, but it was the red zone conversions that saved the Redskins.  They capitalized on their lone chance, whereas the Bucs had a 33% success rate.

Tennessee at Jacksonville

I was wrong about this game, because I thought the Titans would come out of the game with their guns blazing.  It was the opposite, and the Jaguars built an early lead that Tennessee couldn't overcome.  The Jaguars gained 60 additional yards of offense, held the ball eight more minutes, committed two fewer penalties, and were +2 in the turnover department.  And if they capitalized on more than 50% of their whopping six red opportunities, than it would have been a total blowout.

Oakland at Houston

The Raiders need to make a change at quarterback.  For the second consecutive week, they failed to gain over 200 yards of offense, and failed to convert on a red zone opportunity.  Houston dominated this game, and should have won by a larger margin, but only had a 20% red zone conversion rate.  They committed eight fewer penalties, gained double the yards the Raiders gained, held the ball for eight additional minutes, and had a +1 turnover differential.  The glimmer of hope for the Raiders is they sacked Matt Schaub four times, and hit him seven times.

Week 4 Fantasy Rankings- TE

The byes take away options, such Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, and Dante Rosario this week.  Here's the pre-game rank.

1. Dallas Clark

2. Chris Cooley

3. Owen Daniels

4. Antonio Gates

5. Greg Olsen

6. Jeremy Shockey

7. Jason Witten

8. Heath Miller

9. Anthony Fasano

10. Vernon Davis

11. Dustin Keller

12. Todd Heap

13. Visanthe Shiancoe

14. Marcedes Lewis

15. Kevin Boss

16. Kellen Winslow, Jr.

17. Zach Miller

18. John Carlson

19. Benjamin Watson

20. Alge Crumpler

Week 4 Fantasy Rankings- WR

Here's the wide receiver top 40.  It's another list sans big time players, due to the bye week, like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Steve Smith (Carolina version), Mushin Muhammed, DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant, and Jeremy Maclin.

1. Reggie Wayne

2. Randy Moss

3. Vincent Jackson

4. Calvin Johnson

5. Santonio Holmes

6. Percy Harvin

7. Steve Smith NYG

8. Donald Driver

9. Brandon Marshall

10. Mike Sims-Walker

11. Devin Hester

12. Marques Colston

13. Braylon Edwards

14. Santana Moss

15. Andre Johnson

16. Greg Jennings

17. Nate Burleson

18. Justin Gage

19. Lee Evans

20. TJ Houshmandzadeh

21. Chad Ochocinco

22. Mario Manningham

23. Jerecho Cotchery

24. Isaac Bruce

25. Devery Henderson

26. Derrick Mason

27. Nate Washington

28. Kevin Walter

29. Hines Ward

30. Earl Bennett

31. Kenny Britt

32. Pierre Garcon

33. Johnny Knox

34. Chansi Stuckey

35. Bobby Wade

36. Andre Caldwell

37. Bernard Berrian

38. Terrell Owens

39. Mike Wallace

40. Roy Williams

Week 4 Fantasy Rankings- RB

Here's my top 40 running backs.  A lot of good ones have byes this week- Tim Hightower, Chris Wells, Michael Turner, Jerrious Norwood, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy.

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Brandon Jacobs

3. Matt Forte

4. Knowshon Moreno

5. Cedric Benson

6. Willis McGahee

7. Steve Slaton

8. Darren McFadden

9. Chris Johnson

10. Maurice Jones-Drew

11. Ronnie Brown

12. Glen Coffee

13. Clinton Portis

14. Julius Jones

15. Pierre Thomas

16. Tashard Choice

17. Ray Rice

18. Steven Jackson

19. Leon Washington

20. Donald Brown

21. Correll Buckhalter

22. Cadillac Williams

23. Maurice Morris

24. Darren Sproles

25. Fred Jackson

26. Thomas Jones

27. LenDale White

28. Rickey Williams

29. Ryan Grant

30. Fred Taylor

31. Marshawn Lynch

32. Rashard Mendenhall

33. Chester Taylor

34. Marian Barber

35. Reggie Bush

36. Jamaal Charles

37. Joseph Addai

38. Jerome Harrison

39. Kevin Faulk

40. Michael Bush

Week 4 Fantasy Rankings- QB

Here's my quarterback breakdown.  With three potential top ten in the position having byes (Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb), another most likely out this week (Matt Hasselbeck), and a top 15 player out for the season (Chad Pennington), there are a lot of new names in new places on this list.

1. Peyton Manning

2. Tom Brady

3. Eli Manning

4. David Garrard

5. Drew Brees

6. Jay Cutler

7. Trent Edwards

8. Philip Rivers

9. Aaron Rodgers

10. Matt Schaub

11. Kerry Collins

12. Joe Flacco

13. Carson Palmer

14. Brett Favre

15. Shaun Hill

16. Ben Roethlisberger

17. Tony Romo

18. Jason Campbell

19. Mark Sanchez

20. Derek Anderson

Week 4 Game Preview- Part 4

Same breakdown as the three previous posts.

St. Louis at San Francisco

Looking at the numbers, I was surprised that both teams have gained about the same number of yards per game, and have allowed a moderate amount of pressure to their quarterback.  The differences are on the defensive side of the ball.  The 49ers have twice as many sacks, four times as many quarterback hits, and a +2 turnover differential.  The Rams are -5 and have allowed 13 red zone chances (with a 38% conversion rate against), while giving up 80 more yards per game.  This should be an easy win for the 49ers.  Final score 24-3 San Francisco.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

This should be a tight game.  Both teams have allowed pressure to their quarterback, while not harassing the opposing passer.  The Chargers are +1 on the turnover differential, while the Steelers are -4, which is disconcerting for Pittsburgh fans.  However, the numbers that alarm me the most are with San Diego and its red zone opportunities, both for and against.  The Chargers have just a 27% conversion rate on their chances, while giving up 45% of their opponent's opportunities into touchdowns.  I don't see Pittsburgh dropping a third straight game.  Final score 31-28 Pittsburgh.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Monday's game, evidently, has some intrigue.  Brett Favre against his former team for the first time.  The numbers indicate that this should be a close game.  Both teams have high sack rates, gained about the same number of yards, and each have converted on 50% or above on their red zone chances.  The number that favors Green Bay is the turnover differential at +8.  The numbers that favor the Vikings are they've doubled the Packers on quarterback hits and gained 70 more yards per game thus far this season.  It should be close, but there should be carryover from last week's thrilling victory for the Vikings.  Final score 28-24 Minnesota.

Week 4 Game Preview- Part 3

It'll be the same breakdown as the other posts.

New York at New Orleans

The only battle between undefeated teams this week.  We're going to see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.  The Saints offense and the Jets defense are the best respectively in the NFL.  Both teams keep their quarterbacks protected, while pestering the opposing team's passer.  The numbers tell me the Saints defense is slightly better than the Jets offense, especially with a +4 takeover edge, while the Jets are +3.  It will be tight, but the Saints prevail.  Final score 24-21 New Orleans.

Buffalo at Miami

Both teams come into this game reeling from tough losses.  The Dolphins lost quarterback Chad Pennington for the season, and look to backup Chad Henne for the rest of the way.  The offenses for both teams have gained about the same number of yards, while Buffalo's allowed about 60 more per game.  I don't like the Bill's offensive line, as they've allowed Trent Edwards to be hit 29 times this season, and the Dolphins have turned the ball over far too often, -6 differential.  I'm partial to the Bills, only because of the loss of Pennington.  Final score 17-14 Buffalo.

Dallas at Denver

Denver might be the worst 3-0 team in league history, but they've been doing it with defense.  The Broncos have 10 sacks and a +6 turnover differential, even if its against inferior competition those are impressive numbers.  Can Dallas beat them?  Yes.  But their defense has allowed on average one hundred seventy more yards per game, while their offense has gained only about 50 additional yards per game.  Final score 20-13 Denver.

Week 4 Game Previews- Part 2

I'll break the games down the same way as yesterday's post.

Detroit at Chicago

First, my hat's off to Detroit for getting that victory last week, which has eluded them for nearly two years.  However, I don't see that trend continuing for them this week.  The Lions have allowed nearly 100 more yards per game, and have allowed a 58% red zone touchdown conversion rate to opponents.  Final score 27-17 Chicago.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

For the Bengals, this could possibly be a trap game following their impressive win against Pittsburgh last week.  However, I don't see that happening.  The Browns have only a 25% red zone rate in their few opportunities, while allowing a 53% conversion rate on the many they've given up.  Also, Cleveland has a whopping -7 turnover differential and has allowed 11 sacks.  This game should be a rout.  Final score 31-3 Cincinnati.

Seattle at Indianapolis

This is a battle between two good teams.  Both have given up about the same number of yards per game, and have done a solid job at harassing the opposing quarterback.  The Colts separate themselves with a +5 turnover differential and have allowed Peyton Manning to be hit just six times in just three games.  Additionally, the Seahawks are most likely playing without Matt Hasselbeck.  I don't see the Colts losing this one.  Final score 28-10 Indianapolis.

New York Giants at Kansas City

A clash of two teams with different objectives.  The Giants are gunning for another Super Bowl, while the Chiefs are in rebuilding mode.  I'd take the Giants based on yards alone.  Not only have they gained about 130 more per game, but have allowed about 120 fewer per game.  Also, the Chiefs have allowed eight sacks and an 88% red zone conversion rate.  Plus, the Giants have a +5 turnover differential.  This should be another blowout.  Final score 42-7 New York Giants.

Week 4 Game Previews- Part 1

We're a quarter of the way into the season, and bye weeks are here.  Carolina, Arizona, Atlanta, and Philadelphia are off this week.  I'll jump into the previews.

Baltimore at New England

On paper this seems to be a tough game to call.  Both teams are well-coached and have winning records.  Baltimore's gained and given up more yards than New England, and the pressure both teams have given to opposing quarterbacks has been relatively the same.  The differences are on quarterback hits allowed, red zone conversions (71% for Baltimore, 30% for New England), and turnover differential (Baltimore's caused 3 additional turnovers).  The Patriots have allowed Tom Brady to be hit 15 times this season, while Joe Flacco's only been hit six times.  I think the game will be close, but Baltimore prevails.  Final score 24-21 Baltimore.

Tampa Bay at Washington

This is a game both teams need coming off of devastating loses.  One glance at the numbers tells me the Bucs can't protect the quarterback, allowing 26 hits, and are a turnstile on defense, allowing about 110 more yards per game than Washington.  The Redskins numbers aren't all that impressive, but Tampa Bay's are awful.  Also, the Redskins face a new quarterback starting his first NFL game.  I think it'll be ugly, but Washington wins.  Final score 16-7 Washington.

Tennessee at Jacksonville

A divisional game for these teams, so they should be up for it.  The Titans are playing for their football lives, as starting 0-4 probably kills their playoff chances.  Looking at the numbers, the turnover differential is in Jacksonville's favor (+2 compared to -5).  Initially, that was the stat that had me lean towards the Jaguars, but the other numbers held me up.  The Jaguars have allowed 18 hits to David Garrard thus far, allowed on average 50 additional yards per game, and have a 67% rate red zone chances against.  Also, I think Jeff Fisher is a much better coach than Jack Del Rio.  Final score 24-13 Tennessee.

Oakland at Houston

This is a game between the worst quarterback against the one of the worst defenses in the league.  Also, Houston's allowed way too many hits on Matt Schaub with 22.  The Texans have gained more than 110 yards per game than Oakland.  But the stat that hurts the Raiders is the number of red zone opportunities allowed- 12.  While they've allowed five to convert into touchdowns, Houston's done a decent job of capitalizing with a 62% rate.  No matter how poorly Houston's defense plays, I can't see how Russell will match points with Schaub.  Final score 35-10 Houston.