Trotter signing

Just wanted to give a couple of quick thoughts about the moves the Eagles made today.  Signing Jeremiah Trotter tells me Andy Reid isn't pleased with the play of Omar Gaither- Stew Bradley's replacement, and wants veteran leadership on the defensive side of the ball.  Trotter is an emotional leader, and fills the void created by the departure of Brian Dawkins.  

Cutting Jeff Garcia makes sense, because he was really just a one week rental in case of an injury or ineffective play from Kevin Kolb.  And Donovan McNabb should be ready to go for Week 5, so there wasn't a need to carry four quarterbacks on the roster.

Week 3 Fantasy Review- TE

Here's tight end list.  I did slightly better last week, choosing five fewer players.  Here's the list.

1. Brent Celek (6)

2. Vernon Davis (17)

3. Daniel Fells (No Ranking)

4. Dallas Clark (3)

5. Greg Olsen (15)

6. Dante Rosario (20)

7. Jason Witten (5)

8. Owen Daniels (7)

9. Chris Baker (No Ranking)

10. Antonio Gates (2)

11. Jeremy Shockey (13)

12. Ben Hartsock (No Ranking)

13. Todd Heap (8)

14. Alge Crumpler (No Ranking)

15. Derek Fine (No Ranking)

16. Chris Cooley (1)

17. Heath Miller (18)

18. Daniel Graham (No Ranking)

19. Will Heller (No Ranking)

20. Sean Ryan (No Ranking)

Week 3 Fantasy Review- WR

For the second consecutive week, I missed ranking about 50% of the receivers.  I promised last week I'd do better, but, alas, I did worse.  With bye weeks here, I'll have more hits in the top 40.

1. Santana Moss (21)

2. DeSean Jackson (20)

3. Derrick Mason (33)

4. Reggie Wayne (6)

5. Jerecho Cotchery (22)

6. Randy Moss (5)

7. Percy Harvin (26)

8. Nate Burleson (No Ranking)

9. Kevin Walter (No Ranking)

10. Vincent Jackson (12)

11. Mike Wallace (No Ranking)

12. Donald Driver (15)

13. Andre Caldwell (No Ranking)

14. Pierre Garcon (No Ranking)

15. Anquan Boldin (23)

16. Greg Jennings (2)

17. Devin Hester (40)

18. Steve Smith NYG (34)

19. Bryant Johnson (No Ranking)

20. Jacoby Jones (No Ranking)

21. Brandon Marshall (30)

22. Mark Bradley (No Ranking)

23. Sydney Rice (No Ranking)

24. Steve Breaston (35)

25. Earl Bennett (No Ranking)

26. Johnny Knox (No Ranking)

27. Larry Fitzgerald (9)

28. Hines Ward (27)

29. Andre Johnson (1)

30. Greg Lewis (No Ranking)

31. Michael Jenkins (No Ranking)

32. Davone Bess (No Ranking)

33. Josh Reed (No Ranking)

34. Roy Williams (No Ranking)

35. Nate Washington (No Ranking)

36. Mike Sims-Walker (No Ranking)

37. Kelley Washington (No Ranking)

38. Patrick Crayton (No Ranking)

39. Mushin Muhammed (No Ranking)

40. Bobby Wade (37)

Week 3 Fantasy Review- RB

I also improved this week with my ranking hits on running backs.  I missed two of the top ten, but I hit on Maurice Jones-Drew as the top player at the position this week.  Just as the previous post, I'll have my prognostication in parenthesis.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew (1)

2. Pierre Thomas (No Ranking)

3. Fred Taylor (No Ranking)

4. Tashard Choice (39)

5. Steven Jackson (12)

6. Julius Jones (16)

7. Willie Parker (37)

8. Kevin Smith (22)

9. Willis McGahee (20)

10. Ahmad Bradshaw (25)

11. Rickey Williams (30)

12. Brandon Jacobs (3)

13. Knowshon Moreno (24)

14. LeSean McCoy (19)

15. Ray Rice (11)

16. Cedric Benson (26)

17. John Kuhn (No Ranking)

18. Joseph Addai (38)

19. Correll Buckhalter (No Ranking)

20. Matt Forte (4)

21. Ronnie Brown (7)

22. Rock Cartwright (No Ranking)

23. Chester Taylor (No Ranking)

24. Felix Jones (21)

25. Steve Slaton (14)

26. Donald Brown (34)

27. Fred Jackson (10)

28. Jerome Harrison (No Ranking)

29. Adrian Peterson (5)

30. Ryan Grant (9)

31. Chris Johnson (27)

32. Michael Turner (2)

33. Maurice Morris (No Ranking)

34. Reggie Bush (35)

35. Darren Sproles (17)

36. DeAngelo Williams (6)

37. LenDale White (No Ranking)

38. Lyelle Hamilton (No Ranking)

39. Jamaal Charles (No Ranking)

40. Sammy Morris (No Ranking)

Week 3 Fantasy Review-QB

I did better ranking the quarterbacks this week than last week.  I missed ranking just one top ten player.  However, for the second consecutive week the number one player at the position, Drew Brees, did not rank.  Hopefully, its not a curse!  I also missed on Matt Ryan and Trent Edwards, as well.  I'll show the actual finish with the projection in parenthesis.

1. Peyton Manning (4)

2. Kevin Kolb (13)

3. Matt Schaub (3)

4. Jason Campbell (No Ranking)

5. Jay Cutler (19)

6. Aaron Rodgers (2)

7. Joe Flacco (8)

8. Ben Roethlisberger (16)

9. Brett Favre (20)

10. Mark Sanchez (18)

11. Kurt Warner (10)

12. Tom Brady (5)

13. Shaun Hill (No Ranking)

14. Kyle Boller (No Ranking)

15. Eli Manning (15)

16. Matt Cassel (No Ranking)

17. Matt Stafford (No Ranking)

18. Philip Rivers (9)

19. David Garrard (11)

20. Seneca Wallace (No Ranking)

Week 3 Game Review- Part 4

I'll break these games down in the same format as the previous posts.

Miami at San Diego

I suspect this game would have been much closer if Chad Pennington didn't go down for the season for yet another injury on his shoulder.  That stated, the Dolphins hurt themselves with penalties, a 25% red zone conversion rate, and a -1 turnover differential.  The Chargers gained 60 additional yards and kept Rivers protected, and managed six drives into the red zone, but they have to convert on more than just one into a touchdown.  Give the Miami defense credit there.

Denver at Oakland

Despite only converting on 33% of their red zone chances into touchdowns, the Broncos dominated this game.  The line allowed zero hits on Kyle Orton, and the offense gained almost 240 more yards than the Raiders, while holding the ball for 13 additional minutes.  Their defense was just as efficient in sacking JaMarcus Russell three times and forcing three Oakland turnovers, while allowing just one red zone chance, while wasn't converted into a touchdown.

Indianapolis at Arizona

The Colts had a great performance, despite playing in Miami on a short week.  They dominated the NFC Champions on both sides of the ball.  On offense, they had a 40% red zone conversion rate, gained 80 additional yards, and allowed just one hit on Peyton Manning.  Their defense harassed Kurt Warner with four sacks and ten overall hits.  They also had a +2 turnover differential.  It was a statement game, tempered by the injury to Dwight Freeney, who should be back in a couple of weeks.

Carolina at Dallas

The Cowboys had by far their best defensive performance of the season last night.  They had three sacks on Jake Delhomme, caused three turnovers, and allowed nary a drive into the red zone.  Their offense gained over 170 more yards than the Panthers, which led to a 15 minute possession advantage, but they need to do better than converting on just 25% of their red zone chances into touchdowns.

Week 3 Game Review- Part 3

This will follow the same format as the previous two posts.

Jacksonville at Houston

This was the shootout I expected it to be.  Looking at the numbers, these teams were evenly matched, as the hits, penalties, and total yards were virtually identical.  Jacksonville won this game for two reasons.  They capitalized on their red zone chances (100% compared to 60%) and had a +1 turnover differential.

Chicago at Seattle

Another close game, and the numbers bear it out.  Seattle outgained the Bears by about 30 total yards, and had fewer penalties.  The time of possession and turnover battles were even.  Chicago won this game because Cutler was better protected and they had more red zone opportunities with a 50% conversion rate.  I suspect the outcome of this game would have been different if Hasselbeck was healthy and able to play.

New Orleans at Buffalo

The Saints dominated this won.  They held the ball longer, gained over 130 more yards, had a +1 turnover edge, and took advantage of 50% of their red zone opportunities, while allowing zero for the Bills.  Buffalo could not protect Edwards, as he took 14 hits on the day, nearly five times more than the Saints allowed to Brees.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

At first glance, the Steelers should have taken this one.  But a closer look at the numbers shows that Cincinnati took advantage of the few breaks they did receive.  Even though they allowed 100 more yards, and had a nine minute disadvantage of possession, they had a 50% conversion rate on red zone opportunities.  On the other hand, the Steelers were 33%.  The Bengals hit Roethlisberger more, had one fewer penalty, and had a +1 turnover edge.

Week 3 Game Review- Part 2

I'll review the next four games in the same format as my previous post.

Tennessee at New York Jets

This game was even from a penalty standpoint, but that was about it.  The Titans allowed more pressure to Collins than the Jets allowed to Sanchez, as they out-gained New York by over 50 yards.  The Jets gave up their first red zone touchdowns this season, but at 100% conversion rate.  At least, they gave up only two opportunities, compared to the Titans four, allowing a 75% conversion rate.  Where this game was won was turnovers.  The Jets caused four, while only giving away two.

Kansas City at Philadelphia

I made some comments in a post following the game.  Afterwards, I took a longer look at the numbers, and the Eagles flat out dominated.  They allowed no pressure on Kolb, while placing moderate pressure on Cassel, had seven fewer penalties, and gained 220 additional yards.  The reason it was only a 20 point victory was the even turnover battle, and the Eagles allowed the Chiefs to convert both their red zone chances into touchdowns.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay

This game was another blowout.  The Giants gave Tampa Bay's quarterbacks moderate pressure, while allowing minimal pressure to Manning.  They also converted for their first red zone chances this season, and had a reasonable 60% rate.  The dominance in this game was discrepancies in total yards and time of possession (over 300 yards and 37 minutes).

Cleveland at Baltimore

Another game, another blowout.  The pressure on both sides was minimal, and the Ravens were actually called for more penalties.  Those are the only stats remotely in Cleveland's favor.  Even with a 50% conversion rate, the Ravens still had six red zone chances, while giving up only one such opportunity.  Baltimore outgained the Browns by over 220 yards and a +3 turnover advantage.

Week 3 Game Review- Part 1

I'll review this week's games based on pressure to both quarterbacks, red zone conversions, total yards, penalties, turnovers, and time of possession.  I went 12-3 this week on my game preview posts.  Now, on to the game reviews!

Washington at Detroit

I'm sure the fans of the Redskins aren't pleased to be the team that brought an end to the Lions losing streak.  However, the numbers tell the story of a close game.  Washington put more pressure on Stafford than the Skins did to Campbell, and had a higher red zone conversion rate (50% to 33%).  The yards were essentially even, and Washington had just one more penalty called on them.  The stats that separated Detroit was the turnover differential (+1) and an approximate 13 minute advantage in holding the ball.  I suspect Detroit will build on this win, and Washington will air it out more- they really started moving the ball when they got Santana Moss involved in the passing game.

Green Bay at St. Louis

The surprising part about this game is the minimal pressure created by either side, and Marc Bulger managed to get injured.  Also, the lack of pressure shows why the game was so high scoring.  Penalties and time of possession were even.  The Rams actually were better with their red zone opportunities (100% compared to 60%).  However, they gave up three more chances than they were given.  The Packers dominated in turnover rate (+3) and total yards with an additional 70.  Those two stats prove how Green Bay dominated this game.

San Francisco at Minnesota

Just like I predicted, this was a nail-biter.  The numbers show that the 49ers had a hard-luck loss, which they did.  They created slightly more pressure on Favre, than Minnesota did to Hill.  Also, the 49ers gave the Vikings only one red zone opportunity, and they did not allow a touchdown.  That speaks volumes, because on the other side was Adrian Peterson and he was born to smell pay dirt.  And they had a 67% conversion rate on their red zone chances.  The Vikings won this game because they held the ball for an additional four minutes, but more importantly, they gained over 130 total yards.

Atlanta at New England

This was one of the games I missed on.  Once the second half rolled around, the Patriots dominated.  To credit both teams, they kept their quarterbacks clean.  The Falcons had a higher red zone conversion percentage (50% to 20%).  Everywhere else, though, New England dominated.  The Patriots won the turnover battle, had a five called penalty advantage, held the ball for an additional 19 minutes, and gained close to 200 more yards.  The stat that kept this game reasonably close was the Patriots inability to close the door in the red zone- two additional opportunities, but one fewer conversion.

Quick thoughts

Just watched the Eagles game. Granted Kansas City is a work in progress, but the young kids looked very good. Kevin Kolb was precise and accurate on his passes; LeSean McCoy appears to be a breakout player; DeSean Jackson is an absolute stud; Brent Celek was solid yet again; the line kept Kolb clean. Defensively, Sean McDermitt called an aggressive game plan, and harassed Matt Cassel for four quarters. Michael Vick looked rusty, but he's a work in progress. It's a bye next week, so Week 5 bring on San Francisco!

Also Inactive

Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb, and Dwayne Bowe are all also inactive today.

Inactives for Week 3

Jamal Lewis, Matt Hasselbeck, and LaDanian Tomlinson have been ruled out of today's games. Adjust your fantasy rosters accordingly.

Week 3 Fantasy Preview- TE

Here's my projected top 20 tight ends.

1. Chris Cooley

2. Antonio Gates

3. Dallas Clark

4. Tony Gonzalez

5. Jason Witten

6. Brent Celek

7. Owen Daniels

8. Todd Heap

9. Dustin Keller

10. Kellen Winslow, Jr.

11. Jon Carlson

12. Zach Miller

13. Jeremy Shockey

14. Kevin Boss

15. Greg Olsen

16. Visanthe Shiancoe

17. Vernon Davis

18. Heath Miller

19. Tony Scheffler

20. Dante Rosario

Week 3 Fantasy Preview- WR

Here's WR top 40.

1. Andre Johnson

2. Greg Jennings

3. Steve Smith, Car

4. Marques Colston

5. Randy Moss

6. Reggie Wayne

7. Terrell Owens

8. Chad Ochocinco

9. Larry Fitzgerald

10. Santonio Holmes

11. Calvin Johnson

12. Vincent Jackson

13. Devery Henderson

14. Dwayne Bowe

15. Donald Driver

16. Lee Evans

17. Mario Manningham

18. Roddy White

19. Wes Welker

20. DeSean Jackson

21. Santana Moss

22. Jerecho Cotchery

23. Anquan Boldin

24. Eddie Royal

25. TJ Houshmandzadeh

26. Percy Harvin

27. Hines Ward

28. Chris Henry

29. Ted Ginn, Jr.

30. Brandon Marshall

31. Bernard Berrian

32. Braylon Edwards

33. Derrick Mason

34. Steve Smith, NYG

35. Steve Breaston

36. Chansi Stuckey

37. Bobby Wade

38. Justin Gage

39. Torry Holt

40. Devin Hester

Week 3 Fantasy Preview-RB

Here's RB top 40.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew

2. Michael Turner

3. Brandon Jacobs

4. Matt Forte

5. Adrian Peterson

6. DeAngelo Williams

7. Ronnie Brown

8. Frank Gore

9. Ryan Grant

10. Fred Jackson

11. Ray Rice

12. Steven Jackson

13. Tim Hightower

14. Steve Slaton

15. Clinton Portis

16. Julius Jones

17. Darren Sproles

18. Cadillac Williams

19. LeSean McCoy

20. Willis McGahee

21. Felix Jones

22. Kevin Smith

23. Leon Washington

24. Knowshawn Moreno

25. Ahmad Bradshaw

26. Cedric Benson

27. Chris Johnson

28. Larry Johnson

29. Thomas Jones

30. Rickey Williams

31. Jamal Lewis

32. Jonathan Stewart

33. Chris Wells

34. Donald Brown

35. Reggie Bush

36. Darren McFadden

37. Willie Parker

38. Joseph Addai

39. Tashard Choice

40. Brian Westbrook

Week 3 Fantasy Preview- QB

I will rank the players in order on how they'll perform on Sunday.  I do a top 20 list for QB's.

1. Drew Brees

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Matt Schaub

4. Peyton Manning

5. Tom Brady

6. Matt Ryan

7. Trent Edwards

8. Joe Flacco

9. Philip Rivers

10. Kurt Warner

11. David Garrard

12. Chad Pennington

13. Kevin Kolb

14. Tony Romo

15. Eli Manning

16. Ben Roethlisberger

17. Carson Palmer

18. Mark Sanchez

19. Jay Cutler

20. Brett Favre

Week 3 Game Preview- Part 4

Same breakdown as the other posts.

Denver at Oakland

Both teams have done well at protecting the quarterback, and each have a 50% red zone conversion rate.  However, Denver has been much more effective moving the ball, as they average about 110 more total yards per game.  I suspect this is due to the atrocious play of JaMarcus Russell.

On defense, both teams have gotten moderate pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Denver has done an excellent job at limiting the number of red zone opportunities to three, with just a 33% conversion rate.  The Broncos also possess a greater turnover differential (+4 to +1).

I like the effect Oakland's crowd has on opposing teams, but Russell needs to substantially increase his play if Oakland is going to improve.  Final score 13-7 Denver.

Miami at San Diego

The Dolphins have given up a lot of sacks, despite allowing minimal hit.  It tells me when a defender gets to Pennington, he takes him down.  Conversely, the Chargers have given up too many hits on Philip Rivers.  The Chargers have gained an additional 70 total yards per game.  They also have a whopping nine red zone chances, but have only converted three of them.  Whereas the Dolphins have converted on 75% of their opportunities.

Defensively, the Chargers have given up an average of twenty additional yards per game, and allowed a 57% red zone conversion rate, while the Dolphins have given up a 40% conversion rate.  San Diego's turnover differential is much greater, as well (Even compared to-5)

If Miami allows the Chargers to have the ball during the game, they should win this handily.  However, the Dolphins do well with their limited opportunities, so I see this game being close. Final score 21-20 San Diego.

Indianapolis at Arizona

The Colts have done a good job at protecting Peyton Manning, while Arizona has given up a moderate amount of hits to Kurt Warner.  Both teams have taken advantage of their red zone opportunities (Indianapolis at 67% and Arizona at 75%).

On defense, the Cardinals have attacked the opposing quarterback well with eight sacks on ten hits.  The Colts have had moderate success, getting seven quarterback hits.  Both teams are too lenient in the red zone giving up 75% (Colts) and 60% (Cardinals) respectively.  While the Cardinals are Even in the turnover department, while Colts have yet to turn the ball over.

In the end, the team to pick is the one to yet turn it over.  (Watch me jinx them!)  Final score 31-24 Indianapolis.

Carolina at Dallas

Both teams have given pressure to the quarterback.  The Panthers have allowed substantially more pressure, than the Cowboys, even though they've allowed nine hits.  Dallas has out gained the Panthers by 115 yards per game, and converted on 83% of their red zone opportunities.  Meanwhile, Carolina has converted 50% rate.

Carolina has had minimal pressure on the quarterback, while the Cowboys have ten hits.  Dallas has a -4 turnover differential, while the Panthers have a -5 differential.  The number against Carolina is their red zone against rate at 86%.  The Cowboys have allowed 120 additional yards per game.

The Cowboys should win this game, due to its major yards gained and red zone proficiency advantages.  Final score 27-13 Dallas.

Week 3 Game Preview- Part 3

I'll review the numbers the same way as the previous two posts.

Jacksonville at Houston

On offense, both teams have gained about the same number of yards and have given up a lot of hits to the quarterback.  Houston has been a little more proficient in converting their red zone opportunities to touchdowns, going 67% compared to Jacksonville's 50%.

Defensively, both teams have given up yards, Houston 50 more per game on average.  Both teams are +1 in the turnover battle, and have high red zone conversion rates against (Jacksonville 75% and Houston 67%).  Also, both teams have generated minimal pressure on opposing quarterbacks, combining for a total of nine hits this season.

I'm taking Houston, because they have more firepower on the offense.  There should be a lot of points scored here.  Final score 41-28 Houston.

Chicago at Seattle

Based upon the numbers, both teams are evenly matched.  Both have allowed minimal hits to the quarterback, and have average red zone conversions (Chicago at 40% and Seattle at 50%).  Seattle has averaged about 50 additional yards of offense per game, but that stat must be tempered by anticipating them playing without Matt Hasselbeck.

On defense, both teams have pressured the opposing quarterback, but haven't forced too many turnovers.  They each have a negative takeaway ratio (Chicago at -2 and Seattle at -3)  The big difference defensively is Seattle hasn't allowed a red zone touchdown, and Chicago has allowed 60% of those opportunities go for six.

This should be a hard fought game.  Seattle has a great crowd, but without Hasselbeck, I'll have to take the Bears.  Final score 17-13 Chicago.

New Orleans at Buffalo

The Saints have a terrific offense.  Drew Brees has been kept clean by the offensive line, and are averaging about 110 yards more per game than Buffalo.  They also have converted on 75% of their red zone trips into touchdowns.  On the other hand, Buffalo has allowed Trent Edwards to take five times as many hits, and have score touchdowns on only 33% of their red zone chances.

On defense, the Saints have been a surprise, as they've allowed 50 yards less per game than the Bills, and have a +3 turnover differential, while Buffalo is Even.  In addition, the Saints have allowed only 33% conversion rate on red zone chances, though they've given up nine attempts, while the Bills have allowed 71% to be converted.  Buffalo's strength has been pressuring the quarterback, evidenced by its 18 hits.

In the end, the Saints offense will be too much.  Final score 38-21 New Orleans.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

On the outset, one would think Pittsburgh would destroy Cincinnati.  But looking at the numbers, it doesn't indicate any such dominance.  The Steelers average about 20 additional yards per game, but that's their biggest advantage.  The Bengals have protected Palmer better than the Steelers have with Roethlisberger, and have capitalized on its red zone opportunities (83% compared to 40%)

There were some surprises looking at the defensive numbers.  First, Cincinnati has allowed only about ten more yards per game.  And the biggest surprise was the differential in sacks and quarterback hits.  Pittsburgh has hit the quarterback five times, while sacking him twice.  The Bengals have 15 hits and nine sacks.  Both teams thus far have played lousy red zone defense at 60% for Pittsburgh and 67% for Cincinnati, and have low turnover differential, both at -3.

As good as I think Pittsburgh is, and two field goals away from being undefeated, they are playing without Troy Polomaulo.  He is the difference maker.  I'm taking Cincinnati in a close one.  Final score 13-10 Cincinnati.

Week 3 Game Preview- Part 2

I'll review the same stats as mentioned in the previous post, and make my prediction.

Tennessee at New York Jets

Offensively, both teams have done a good job at protecting the quarterback, both have been hit just a combined 11 times.  Tennessee is slightly better at converting their red zone opportunities into touchdowns (50% to New York's 40%).  In terms of total yards, the Jets on average are gaining about 75 more per game.

As good as both these teams are at protecting the quarterback, both are good at pressuring the position from a defensive standpoint, as they've combined for 29 hits in just two games apiece.  The stats that impress me the most about the Jets are yards against (allowing about 150 fewer on average), turnover differential (+1 compared to -3), and most importantly red zone conversions.  Not only has New York not allowed a touchdown, but there have only been three drives this season on them in the red zone.

The way New York's defense has been playing, and the efficiency of the offense, I have to pick the Jets.  Final score 20-6 New York.

Kansas City at Philadelphia

My beloved Eagles are limping into this game with injuries to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and DeSean Jackson.  They are three key players to lose.  However, the Eagles have gained on average 65 more yards per game than the Chiefs.  Both teams have a 50% red zone conversion rate, however the Eagles have double the opportunities.  The Chiefs need to protect better, as they have a high sack rate (71%) compared to hits.

Defense sets these two teams apart.  Even though the Eagles numbers are a bit skewed from the Jake Delhomme implosion from Week 1, they have more than double the sacks and five times as many quarterback hits compared to the Chiefs.  Two other stats in the Eagles favor are turnover differential (+2 compared to -1) and red zone conversions against.  Teams have a 100% conversion rate into touchdowns against Kansas City, whereas it's, albeit high, 55% against the Eagles.

If the stars were playing or at 100%, I'd say this game is a romp.  With the injuries, this game will be a little bit closer, but their talent, plus the motivation from the whopping New Orleans gave them last week, will prevail.  Final score 28-10 Philadelphia.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay

I suspect this game will be much closer than most imagine.  Tampa Bay has actually averaged 25 more yards per game than the Giants.  The difference in the offensive lines is huge, however, as Eli Manning has taken only four hits all season, while Byron Leftwich has taken 20 hits.  Another stat that tells me this will be close is red zone conversions.  The Giants have yet to score a touchdown in any of their eight trips this season, while Tampa Bay is a perfect 5/5.

Defense is the difference between the two teams in terms of total yards and turnover differential.  Tampa Bay has given up 125 more yards per game on average.  Their 16 hits tells me they go for broke to pressure the quarterback, thus giving up big plays.  The Giants are +4 in turnovers, will the Bucs are Even.  Another interesting stat is red zone conversions against.  In one fewer chance, Tampa Bay has a 16% conversion rate against, while the Giants have an 86% conversion rate against.

This game should be close, and I wouldn't be surprised at an upset.  Still, this should be a shootout.  Final score 35-31 New York.

Cleveland at Baltimore

The offensive stats that jump off the page are Baltimore averages 170 more yards per a game, and have an 88% conversion rate in the red zone.  Cleveland's rate is 33%, in five fewer opportunities.  The Browns have not done a good job protecting Brady Quinn, as he's been hit 12 times this season, with a 75% sack rate per hit.  Conversely, Baltimore has done an excellent job at protecting Joe Flacco, as he's only been hit four times all season.

Defensively, both teams have done a good job at hitting the quarterback, as both have nine hits.  The stats that push this side of the ball into the Ravens favor is yards against (on average Cleveland allows about 50 more per game), turnovers (Even compared to -4), and most importantly red zone conversions.  Baltimore has allowed only a 28% rate against, while Cleveland's is a whopping 55%.

This game should be a route.  Final score 41-20 Baltimore.

Week 3 Game Preview

I will preview each game with the following statistics, for offense and defense of both teams: pressure (sacks and QB hits), total yards, red zone, and turnover differential.  After showing the stats, I will make a prediction on each game.

Washington at Detroit

Offensively, the Redskins need to keep Jason Campbell clean, so he can throw the ball.  He's faced moderate pressure this season, as he's taken four sacks and been hit on six occasions.  Washington on average has gained 70 more yards per game than Detroit, giving themselves two additional touchdown opportunities.  However, they've capitalized on only 25% of their chances, whereas the Lions have converted 50% for theirs for touchdowns.

Defensively, the Lions have created a surprising amount of pressure, as last season their pass rush was nonexistent, with nine hits to the opposing quarterback.  They've gotten themselves in trouble with red zone conversions allowed (60%), turnover differential (-2), and most on average have given up more than 100 yards than the Redskins defense.

After last week, I think Washington will be motivated, and will be more aggressive on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is improving, but have further growing pains.  Final score:24-13 Washington.

Green Bay at St. Louis

On offense, both teams have given up too many quarterback hits (Green Bay with 19 and St. Louis with 12).  The Packers have a strong red zone offense as they've converted touchdowns on 60% of their opportunities, while the Rams have converted on just 25% of their chances.

Both defenses have allowed too many red zone opportunities (Green Bay with seven and St. Louis with eight).  The two major differences between these two teams are quarterback pressure and turnover differential.  The Packers have a major edge in both with three more sacks, on three additional hits, and a +5 compared to a -2 turnover differential.

Green Bay should keep Aaron Rodgers relatively clean, while taking advantage of a young team.  Final score 31-10 Green Bay.

San Francisco at Minnesota

After glancing over the numbers, this should be a tight game.  On both sides of the ball, the numbers are fairly even.  They've gained, essentially, the same amount of yards.  Both teams have allowed too much pressure on the quarterback.  The 49ers have given up ten hits to the Vikings 13, a stat that surprised me, as Adrian Peterson has shouldered the load, so they're not throwing the ball too much.  The Vikings have had five additional red zone chances, and have a 55% conversion rate, compared to a 50% rate for the 49ers.

On defense, both teams have created pressure, as San Francisco has ten hits, while Minnesota has nine.  I believe the key difference is the turnover differential, where both teams are positive.  The 49ers are +2, as the Vikings have done better at +4.

This should be a close game.  It will go down to the wire.  Final score 17-14 Minnesota.

Atlanta at New England

This game will be closer than most imagine.  On offense, Matt Ryan has been relatively unscathed, while Tom Brady has taken thirteen hits already.  Both teams have had the same amount of red zone chances.  New England's converted on 38% of theirs, Atlanta's converted on 50%.  The Patriots have gained more yards, but that hasn't led to more points.

On defense, both teams have sack percentages in conjunction with their hits (Atlanta at 63%, New England at 67%).  The Falcons have given up about 85 more yards on average on defense, however they make up for it with better turnover differential (+4 compared to New England's Even).  And both teams have a 60% opposition red zone conversion.

The Falcons have looked much better than the Patriots this season, and the numbers skew a bit in their favor.  I think this will be a high scoring, close affair.  Final score 31-28 Atlanta.

Week 2 Fantasy Review-TE

I did better with Tight End than with the backs and receivers.  I missed Shockey and Olsen.  Though, Kellen Davis may emerge as a number two tight end in Chicago, if Desmond Clark is off the field for too long.  Also, don't look to pick up Derek Schouman, since he was just placed Injured Reserve, and out for the season.

1. Dallas Clark (4)

2. Kellen Winslow, Jr. (13)

3. Brent Celek (11)

4. Tony Gonzalez (3)

5. Owen Daniels (12)

6. Marcedes Lewis (No Ranking)

7. Jason Witten (2)

8. Chris Cooley (1)

9. Kellen Davis (No Ranking)

10. Dante Rosario (No Ranking)

11. Jerramy Stevens (No Ranking)

12. Antonio Gates (8)

13. Dustin Keller (9)

14. Derek Schouman (No Ranking)

15. Matt Spaeth (No Ranking)

Week 2 Fantasy Review- WR

This was another position I was totally off from reality.  Four of my top ten weren't even in the top forty ( Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, and Eddie Royal).  In fact, I was able to successfully rank only 21 receivers.  I'll do better in Week 3.

1. Andre Johnson (6)

2. Mario Manningham (No Ranking)

3. Steve Smith NYG (30)

4. Vincent Jackson (19)

5. DeSean Jackson (18)

6. Marques Colston (11)

7. Mike Sims-Walker (No Ranking)

8. Steve Smith Car (12)

9. Ted Ginn, Jr. (No Rank)

10. Donald Driver (20)

11. Chad Ochocinco (23)

12. Johnny Knox (No Ranking)

13. Jason Avant (No Ranking)

14. Percy Harvin (26)

15. Jacoby Jones (No Ranking)

16. Terrell Owens (8)

17. Calvin Johnson (2)

18. Laurent Robinson (No Ranking)

19. Julian Edelman (No Ranking)

20. Dwayne Bowe (16)

21. Kelley Washington (No Ranking)

22. Pierre Garcon (No Ranking)

23. Bobby Wade (No Ranking)

24. Braylon Edwards (28)

25. Nate Washington (No Ranking)

26. Larry Fitzgerald (4)

27. Santonio Holmes (9)

28. Steve Breaston (No Ranking)

29. Anquan Boldin (24)

30. Jerricho Cotchery (39)

31. Brandon Stokely (No Ranking)

32. Jabar Gaffney (No Ranking)

33. Lee Evans (21)

34. Maurice Stovall (No Ranking)

35. Torry Holt (37)

36. Devery Henderson (No Ranking)

37. Hines Ward (34)

38. TJ Houshmandzadeh (17)

39. Joey Galloway (No Ranking)

40. Laverneus Coles (No Ranking)

Week 2 Fantasy Review- RB

For the Running Backs and Wide Receivers, I'll just put the rankings and the predictions in parenthesis.  This week I was way off on the running back calls, as I only on three players in the top ten.

1. Chris Johnson (5)

2. Frank Gore (16)

3. Darren Sproles (33)

4. Ronnie Brown (15)

5. Marian Barber (12)

6. Fred Jackson (10)

7. Willis McGahee (No Rank)

8. Michael Turner (2)

9. Cedric Benson (35)

10. Correll Buckhalter (No Rank)

11. Steven Jackson (20)

12. Felix Jones (No Rank)

13. Adrian Peterson (1)

14. DeAngelo Williams (8)

15. Tim Hightower (34)

16. Cadillac Williams (13)

17. Reggie Bush (No Rank)

18. Mike Bell (23)

19. Larry Johnson (No Rank)

20. Darren McFadden (31)

21. Ryan Grant (17)

22. Dorsey Forsett (No Rank)

23. Jason Snelling (No Rank)

24. Donald Brown (30)

25. Leon Washington (6)

26. Knowshawn Moreno (32)

27. Ray Rice (14)

28. Maurice Jones-Drew (3)

29. Dantrell Savage (No Rank)

30. Julius Jones (26)

31. Jonathan Stewart (28)

32. Heath Evans (No Rank)

33. Kevin Smith (21)

34. Clinton Portis (4)

35. Matt Forte (19)

36. Brian Westbrook (7)

37. Rickey Williams (36)

38. Jason Wright (No Rank)

39. Steve Slaton (24)

40. LeSean McCoy (No Rank)

Week 2 Fantasy Review- QB

I will breakdown my predictions against the actual results with a quick blurb next to each player.  Also, place in parenthesis my pre-game ranking.

1. Matt Schaub (17)- I didn't realize how porous the Tennessee secondary actually was.  The Haynesworth loss in free agency really hurt their pass defense.

2. Brees (3)- I was close on this one.

3. Philip Rivers (11)- I thought Baltimore's defense was better than its show.

4. Kevin Kolb (No Rank)- Going with the young QB, I thought the Eagles would try to control the clock more, but they were down, and were forced to put the ball in the air.

5. Peyton Manning (5)- Hit the nail on the head with this call.

6. Eli Manning (No Rank)- The second player I missed the on.  Dallas's secondary looked terrible on Sunday night, while the line got no pressure.

7. Carson Palmer (No Rank)- The third player in the top ten I missed on.

8. Matt Ryan (9)- Close...

9. Kurt Warner (8)- but I flip-flopped them.

10. Byron Leftwich (No Rank)- The fourth player I missed in the top ten.  He may have more finishes in the top ten, because they'll be down a lot, and he'll have to throw.

11. Trent Edwards (13)- Another player I was close on.

12. Jay Cutler (16)- I was a little off on him, but I thought Pittsburgh's defense would give him fits.

13. Brett Favre (12)- Another player I was close on, but he was clobbered against Detroit.

14. Kerry Collins (18)- I didn't realize this game was going to be a shoot-out.

15. Ben Roethlisberger (15)- He is what he is, for fantasy purposes, at least.

16. Jake Delhomme (No rank)- Only one turnover, and ran the offense well last week.

17. David Garrard (10)- The Cardinals defense played better than I thought they would.

18. Joe Flacco (7)- San Diego's run defense was so porous, that Baltimore didn't need to throw the ball.

19. Aaron Rodgers (1)- Cincinnati's defense is much better than I believed.

20. Matt Cassel- Another pick that I hit on.

Week 2 game Review- Part 4

Same breakdown as the previous three posts.

Baltimore-San Diego was a battle between two talented teams.  The Chargers had a slight edge in time of possession, and gained over one hundred more total yards.  Baltimore took advantage of its red zone chances (3/4), while San Diego didn't (0/5), an additional turnover and the penalty discrepancy (four compared to San Diego's whopping twelve).

In terms of numbers, Denver dominated Cleveland.  Only the number of penalties went the Browns way.  Denver more than doubled Cleveland in total, converted on 50% of its red zone opportunities, took care of the football, and had a slight advantage in time of possession.

I only caught the end of the Sunday night game.  Wow! It was exciting to watch.  A closer look at the numbers shows that both teams offensive lines dominated, only allowing three total hits between them.  The Giants should have dominated this game, because they had a ten minute edge in time of possession, about 50 additional total yards, and clearly won the turnover battle.  Dallas stayed close because they went four for four on red zone chances, while the Giants whiffed on their five chances.

I saw most of the fourth quarter of last night's game.  The game was essentially even, terms of penalties, limited pressure on the quarterback on both sides, 100% capitalization rate in red zone chances, and turnovers (Miami's solo turnover was a desperation heave from Chad Pennington on the last play of the game.)  The Dolphins had about 50 additional yards, and held the ball for over three quarters of the game!  Peyton Manning made enough plays in his limited opportunities to win the game.  Plus, two of their touchdowns accounted for about 40% of their yards, so the quick strikes hurt Miami.

Week 2 Game Review- Part 3

Same breakdown as the previous two posts.

This a game where the statistics indicate it was a lot closer than it actually was.  The total yards and penalties were similar.  Arizona had a slight advantage in time of possession.  The reason behind Kurt Warner's record setting day was his offensive line.  They allowed only one QB hit.  And they were 100% on red zone opportunities, where Jacksonville was only 50%.

Give San Francisco credit, they took care of the football- zero turnovers- had about 100 more yards than Seattle, and dominated in time of possession.  That's a recipe to win games.  The Seahawks had their opportunities to close in the red zone, three to the 49ers one, but only capitalized on one.  I'm sure they missed Matt Hasselbeck in the second half of the game, because leadership from a three-time Pro Bowl quarterback is impossible to quantify.

Both Tampa Bay and Buffalo put significant pressure on its opponent, as both teams had very high QB hit totals.  This led to the high yardage each team gained.  The turnovers and time of possession were even.  Tampa Bay even had 100% on their red zone chances, compared to a zero for four for Buffalo.  Where the Bills won the game was in total yards, as they had about 100 yards more than their opponent, and had seven less penalties called on them.

I mentioned I saw the Pittsburgh-Chicago game.  The stats indicate this game was every bit of a close game as the score indicated.  The Steelers had a clear edge in total yards and penalties, and the time of possession was even.  The Bears put slightly more pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and didn't turn the ball over.  In the red zone, the Steelers were 67% on their opportunities, while the Bears were 100% in their two chances.

Week 2 Game Review- Part 2

Same breakdown as the last post.

It seemed like every a couple minutes there was a highlight from either Chris Johnson or a pass from Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson.  The yards and penalties were essentially even.  The defensive lines from both teams gave minimal pressure to the opposing quarterback.  Houston won this game by holding on to the ball longer, capitalizing on their additional red zone opportunities, and not turning the ball over, whereas Tennessee gave it away twice.

The Oakland-Kansas City game is a statistical oddity at first, but looking closer its easy to see what happened: the Chiefs gave it away.  The only category, other than the scoreboard that Oakland dominated was QB pressure.  They had a slight advantage in penalties (7 to KC's 9), but were more than doubled in total yards and time of possession.  Kansas City lost the game by turning it over twice and not capitalizing on its two red zone opportunities.  Oakland didn't turn the ball over and took advantage of its single red zone attempt.

As previously mentioned, I watched the Patriots-Jets game, and what surprised me was the hit total on Brady wasn't higher.  It seemed like every time he released the ball a Jets defender was in his face.  Overall, the game was about even.  New England was penalized three more times, but gained 50 additional yards.  The difference was red zone opportunities.  The Patriots didn't capitalize on its three chances, while the Jets went one for three.

Looking at the numbers, Washington allowed St. Louis to stay in the game.  They out gained the Rams by over 100 yards, and kept possession of the ball for ten additional minutes.  The Redskins even had three additional red zone opportunities.  The difference between the teams was St. Louis capitalized on one of its two chances, whereas the Redskins didn't score on any of theirs.

Week 2 Game Review- Part 1

To quantify how I review games, I review the following statistics: quarterback pressures, based upon sacks and QB hits; turnovers; total yards; red zone opportunities and success rate; penalties; and time of possession.  The reason I review those stats is because they clearly tell the story of the game.  And generally, the teams that win those battles win the game.  Let's get to the first round of games!

After seeing the score and the highlights of my beloved Eagles, I would have believed the game was an unmitigated disaster.  Taking a closer look at the above stats, it was a much closer game than the score indicated.  Time of possession and total yards were about even.  The Saints had slightly more pressure, based on the QB hits (5-1).  Where this game turned for the Eagles was the turnovers, red zone success rate rate (20% compared to 67% for New Orleans) and penalties.  This is understandable with a young first time quarterback in Kevin Kolb starting.  To beat an explosive team like the Saints, the Eagles had to close a higher percentage of their red zone opportunities and cut turnovers, to keep the ball away from their offense.  I suspect if a healthy Donovan McNabb played in this game, the score would have been much closer.

After the last two starts, Jake Delhomme needed to significantly cut down his turnovers.  He did so in this one, and the efficiency of the Carolina offense improved significantly.  I was very surprised to see how close this game actually was.  Carolina had about a 70 yard edge in total yards.  The penalty and turnover rates were identical.  Atlanta had a couple more minutes in possession of the ball.  Where Atlanta won this game was capitalizing on its extra red zone possession and the quarterback pressures.  Their line allowed no sacks and no hits.  That's why Matt Ryan had such a huge game.  He had the time to deliver the ball to his receivers.

In the Minnesota-Detroit game, it was another one where the game was actually closer than the final score indicated.  The total yards for each team were identical, the penalties, and time of possession were about even, as well.  Detroit's defense created intense pressure on Brett Favre with three sacks and seven QB hits, whereas Minnesota's much ballyhooed defense created two sacks and two QB hits.  The two big differences were the turnover battle and red zone opportunities.  Although the percentage for each team was the same, Minnesota had double the chances, thus were able to capitalize.

Based upon the highlights, Cincinnati at Green Bay was a very entertaining game.  The stats bear that out with the total yards being virtually even, the penalties about the same, and the capitalization of red zone opportunities.  Although, the Packers had a 67% success rate, the Bengals had 100% success rate on one additional opportunity.  Cincinnati dominated in time of possession and maintained intense pressure on Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers won the turnover battle, which kept them in the game.

Week 2 Sunday Final

I went 8-7 on the game predictions today.  Although I was two Jeff Reed missed field goals from going 9-6.  I wasn't able to watch the Eagles debacle, but I understand Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson were injured during the contest.  Hopefully, they will be healthy enough to play against Kansas City next week.

The games I saw were the Jets-Patriots and Bears-Steelers.  Hear are a couple of observations on each game.  I'll begin with the Jets-Patriots game.  

The Jets have a fantastic Red Zone defense.  Holding New England's offense to three field goals is no small feat.  Is it just me, or should Rex Ryan let reigns loose on Mark Sanchez?  The offense didn't look in sync at all, until he allowed his prized rookie to throw the ball.  Although he made some mistakes, Julian Edelman appears to be a Wes Welker clone.  He had eight catches for 98 yards.  Tom Brady was most effective in the two minute drill.  Why don't the Patriots start the game that way to get him into rhythm?

Jay Cutler looked like he was under control.  The rookie Knox was impressive.  Santonio Holmes is continuing to build on his Super Bowl MVP performance.  Jeff Reed with two misses- just shocking.  He nails them off that sludge called Heinz Field weekly.  How about the hit Palomaulo's replacement delivered to Greg Olsen!  Glad to see both players shook off the cob webs.

I'll review both my game and fantasy predictions where I was right and wrong on upcoming posts.

Notable Inactives/Actives

Donovan McNabb and Wes Welker are not playing today. Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are. Adjust your rosters accordingly. McNabb wasn't expected to play. Welker is a bit of a surprise since he played so well on Monday, even with his banged up knee. I thought he'd have a big game running underneath routes.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings- TE

I'll rank 15 Tight Ends, but this is a deep group.

1. Chris Cooley Was

2. Jason Witten Dal

3. Tony Gonzalez Atl

4. Dallas Clark Ind

5. Jon Carlson Sea

6. Zach Miller Oak

7. Jeremy Shockey NO

8. Antonio Gates SD

9. Dustin Keller NYJ

10. Kellen Winslow Jr TB

11. Todd Heap Bal

12. Brent Celek Phi

13. Owen Daniels Hou

14. Visanthe Shiancoe Min

15. Greg Olsen Chi

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings- WR

Here is the top 40 WR's for Week 2.

1. Greg Jennings GB 21. Lee Evans Buf

2. Calvin Johnson Det 22. Santana Moss Was

3. Reggie Wayne Ind 23. Chad Ochocinco Cin

4. Larry Fitzgerald Arz 24. Anquan Boldin Arz

5. Randy Moss NE 25. Justin Gage Ten

6. Andre Johnson Hou 26. Percy Harvin Min

7. Roddy White Atl 27. Isaac Bruce SF

8. Terrell Owens Buf 28. Braylon Edwards Cle

9. Santonio Holmes Pit 29. Roy Williams Dal

10. Eddie Royal Den 30. Steve Smith NYG

11. Marques Colston NO 31. Devin Hester Chi

12. Wes Welker NE 32. Derrick Mason Bal

13. Nate Burleson Sea 33. Robert Meacham NO

14. Steve Smith Car 34. Hines Ward Pit

15. Brandon Marshall Den 35. Antonio Bryant TB

16. Dwayne Bowe KC 36. Earl Bennett Chi

17. TJ Houshmandzahdeh Sea 37. Torry Holt Jax

18. DeSean Jackson Phi 38. Chris Henry Cin

19. Vincent Jackson SD 39. Jerecho Cotchery NYJ

20. Donald Driver GB 40. Patrick Crayton Dal

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings- RB

For both the Running Backs and Wide Receivers I'll rank who I think will be the top 40 fantasy performers this week.

1. Adrian Peterson Min 16. Frank Gore SF 31. Jonathan Stewart Car

2. Michael Turner Atl 17. Ryan Grant GB 32 Knowshawn Moreno Den

3. Maurice Jones-Drew Jax 18. Willie Parker Pit 33. Darren Sproles SD

4. Clinton Portis Was 19. Matt Forte Chi 34. Tim Hightower Arz

5. Chris Johnson Ten 20. Steven Jackson StL 35. Cedric Benson Cin

6. Leon Washington NYJ 21. Kevin Smith Det 36. Rickey Williams Mia

7. Brian Westbrook Phi 22. Jamal Lewis Cle 37. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG

8. DeAngelo Williams Car 23. Mike Bell NO 38. Kevin Faulk NE

9. Brandon Jacobs NYG 24. Steve Slaton Hou 39. Fred Taylor NE

10. Fred Jackson Buf 25. LenDale White Ten 40. Michael Bush Oak

11. Thomas Jones NYJ 26. Julius Jones Sea

12. Marian Barber Dal 27. Chester Taylor Min

13. Cadillac Williams TB 28. Darren McFadden Oak

14. Ray Rice Bal 29. Joseph Addai Ind

15. Ronnie Brown Mia 30. Donald Brown Ind

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings- QB

I base these rankings upon the matchup and my instinct.  The top quarterbacks are facing challenging defenses this week, so the rankings are different than where I believe these players will end the season.  I'll run a top 20 for this position.

1. Aaron Rodgers GB 11. Phillip Rivers SD

2. Tom Brady NE 12. Brett Favre Min

3. Drew Brees NO 13. Trent Edwards Buf

4. Tony Romo Dal 14. Chad Pennington Mia

5. Peyton Manning Ind 15. Ben Roethlisberger Pit

6. Matt Hasselbeck Sea 16. Jay Cutler Chi

7. Joe Flacco Bal 17. Matt Schaub Hou

8. Kurt Warner Arz 18. Kerry Collins Ten

9. Matt Ryan Atl 19. Jason Campbell Was

10. David Garrard Jax 20. Matt Cassel KC

Week 2 Game Preview Part 4

Same as the previous posts.

Baltimore at San Diego

The Ravens looked very impressive on offense last week, especially Quarterback Joe Flacco.  Tight End Todd Heap may have a big game, since Zach Miller shredded them down the seam last week.  Their special teams have to play better, though.  They allowed a punt to be blocked and returned for a score, and gave up a couple of big returns.

San Diego appeared sluggish last week, until the final few minutes where Quarterback Philip Rivers led two long touchdown drives to close out the game.  They have significant injuries on offense.  Already, Center Nick Hardwick and Running Back LaDanian Tomlinson are out this week, and Tackle Ryan McNeil is hobbled by an ankle injury.  Darren Sproles will start, but I think he'll do more damage as return man than as a running back.

I think the injuries will cause San Diego's offense to sputter, and I the Ravens to steal this one from the Chargers.  Final score: 20-6 Baltimore.

Cleveland at Denver

The Browns defense was shredded last week by Minnesota's running game, so they're secondary wasn't tested much.  On offense, Running Back Jamal Lewis showed flashes of his Baltimore days, and ran the ball with authority against a very good run defense.  I suspect he'll have a nice day against Denver.  Quarterback Brady Quinn needs to air the ball out some more, because as the game last week progressed Minnesota's safeties crept closer and closer to the line of scrimmage, which limited Lewis's effectiveness.

Denver's offense was very bland last week, until the bounce from Cincinnati took place.  I think receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal should have solid games against this defense, especially if they crowd the line to stop runners Knowshawn Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.

I think this game has the potential to become ugly, Denver's offensive talent wins out.  Final score: 16-7 Denver.

New York Giants at Dallas

This is the game of the week.  Two NFC East rivals dueling it out on national television in Cowboys owner Jerry Jones's new stadium.  The Giants have a very solid running game, and have the ability to control the clock, and keep the ball away from the Dallas offense.  Their defense has suffered a lot injuries in the secondary, and could be in trouble if Safety Kenny Phillips is unable to play.  However, Defensive Ends Justin Tuck and Osi Uemeyora are two of the best in the game, and can pressure the quarterback to hide any flaws on the back end.

For the Cowboys, Linebacker DeMarcus Ware is an absolute stud and can create mismatch problems for any of the Giant offensive linemen.  Also, Giants quarterback Eli Manning tends to throw off of his back foot when he's pressured.  This could lead to some interceptions if Ware maintains constant pressure.  If Phillips doesn't play, Quarterback Tony Romo could have a field day against this injury depleted secondary.

With all the emotion heading into this game on Dallas's side, it's hard to pick against the Cowboys.  If anyone can beat them, its the Giants.  I just don't see it. 24-13 Dallas.

Indianapolis at Miami

For the final game of the week, its Quarterback Peyton Manning against the Miami defense.  It should be a good matchup.  Manning and Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne had a big day last week against Jacksonville.  However, the Jaguars shut down their running game, and Miami could do the same, because they have a more talented front seven.  I could see Dallas Clark having a good game, because the Dolphins had trouble against Tony Gonzalez last week.

Miami needs to get its offense going, as they missed a couple of big throws to Wide Receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. last week, one in which would have been a touchdown.  The Jaguars ran the ball effectively against the Colts, and I can see the same this week for the Dolphins. 

Other than Wayne's huge day last week, the Colts offense look anemic.  If Miami can cut down on their turnovers they should win this in a close one.  Final score: 17-16 Miami.

Week 2 Game Preview Part 3

Same as the previous 2 posts.

Arizona at Jacksonville

The Cardinals vaunted aerial attack was grounded in Week 1.  When healthy, they have the players to pressure the Jacksonville secondary.  The injuries to receivers Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston hurt Arizona last week, and the offense suffered.  Boldin should play better, and Breaston, may or may not be activated this week.  This hurts Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald, because the Jaguars can focus their energy on stopping him.  Flying in from the West Coast to play 1pm EST game, only hurts them.  Teams that fly from the West Coast to the East Coast to play the earlier game have a tendency to lose.

Jacksonville played from well last week in Indianapolis.  Their defensive front impressed me the pressure they consistently put on Peyton Manning.  I can see Maurice Jones-Drew having a big game, gashing their the Arizona front.

I'm a big believer in the West Coast flying cross-country and lose at 1pm EST theory.  I see the Super Bowl runner up at 0-2.  Final Score: 16-7 Jacksonville.

Seattle at San Francisco

This a big game for both teams as first place in the division on the line.  The 49er's defensive front will make it tough for Julius Jones to be effective, so Matt Hasselbeck has to have a big game for them to win.  I can see it happening, though the injury to Wide Receiver TJ Houshmandzahdeh could slow them down.  Wide Receivers Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and rookie Deon Butler, and Tight End John Carlson have to pick it up, if Houshmandzhdeh cannot play.  Also, their defense is banged up, and will miss the presence of Linebacker Leroy Hill.

The 49ers have played inspired football since Mike Singletary took over as Coach last season.  Linebacker Patrick Willis will lead the attack, should make Jones ineffective when he runs it for Seattle.  With Hill out and Lofa Totupu injured, I can see Frank Gore having a big day running the ball.

This will be a hard-fought game, but in the end Hasselbeck will make enough plays to win the game for Seattle.  Final score: 21-17 Seattle.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo

The Bucs have a very proficient running game, and if they control the clock, they'll keep the Bills offense off the field.  Against the Patriots, the Bills showed they were vulnerable against the Tight End running seem routes and skinny posts, so expect Kellen Winslow Jr. to have a big game.  Their defense needs to improve against long pass plays to have a shot to win this one on the road.

Buffalo had many efficient drives against New England, and were a Special Teams gaffe away from stealing that game.  They have the receivers in Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to exploit the secondary the way Dallas did to Tampa Bay last week.

I see Buffalo running away with this one, and unfortunately a happy TO.  He should have a big game.  Final score: 31-13 Buffalo.

Pittsburgh at Chicago

The defending Super Bowl champs need to improve their offensive line play, if they want to get their running game going against the Bears.  The line allowed too much penetration 10 days ago to get the runners in rhythm.  The passing game was outstanding against Tennessee, and I suspect that will continue this week, if the run game can't get started.  The Steelers biggest strength is additional preparation time for this game.  Their biggest weakness is the defense is playing without its best player in Troy Palomalou.

Chicago had the misfortune to lose its best defensive player in Brian Urlacher for the season.  Quarterback Jay Cutler was lousy last week, as he tried to force the ball too much into coverage.  Against the Steelers, that approach won't work either.  The Titans threw the ball effectively, once Palomalou was injured, to their receivers.  I can Devin Hester and Earl Bennett having solid games this week.

In the end, giving the Champs that much time to prepare is an egregious advantage to them.  The Cutler era begins at 0-2.  Final score 20-10 Pittsburgh.

Week 2 Game Preview Part 2

Again, I'll review the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and make a prediction.

Houston at Tennessee

The Texans were manhandled in their home opener by the Jets.  They need to play this game with some fire.  Their strength is the passing game, especially when Quarterback gets the ball into the hands of Wide Receiver Andre Johnson.  That did not happen enough last week.  In terms of running the ball, this will be another tough opponent for Running Back Steve Slaton, but he has to receive more than twelve touches to be effective.   The defense has a good front seven, and they need to play well to disrupt the timing in Tennessee's rushing game.

The Titans looked like a solid team in Pittsburgh last week.  Their downfall in the loss was not able to pressure the quarterback up the middle.  They miss Albert Haynesworth, but still have an effective defense.  The running game should get going this week, as both Jets runners had solid games last week.  I expect both Chris Johnson and LenDale White to have big games. 

This should be a game the Titans win, but the Texans should be in it until the end, where Tennessee's running attack wears them down.  Final Score: 21-10 Tennessee.

Oakland at Kansas City

The Raiders showed a lot of heart last week, and will fight for a full 60 minutes.  Defensive End Richard Seymour legitimizes their pass rush, making star Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugh that much more effective on the back end.  Running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should give the Chiefs fits all day.  Two factors worry me about Oakland: JaMarcus Russell's play at quarterback and playing at Arrowhead Stadium.  Russell needs to be more accurate with his passing.  He missed too many wide open receivers last week.  Arrowhead is probably one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL to win on the road.

The Chiefs put up a fight last week against Baltimore, so this game should be a battle.  Historically, Running Back Larry Johnson has killed the Raiders, so he should play well.  I'd like their odds a lot more if Quarterback Matt Cassel was not injured, because he may or may not play.  Their defense needs to play better after giving up 38 points last week.  But their Special Teams need to continue their excellent play for the battle of field position.

This will be a hard fought game.  I see Oakland stealing this one.  Final score: 24-21 Oakland.

New England at New York Jets

The Patriots looked like two different teams last week.  They started the game skittish and tentative on both sides of the ball, and finished it with a flurry, while showing flashes of the 2007 season.  Quarterback Tom Brady looks like he's back to form.  It took him about a half to shake off the rust.  He'll probably be pressured the whole game, I see a lot of dump offs to the running backs and tight ends, and slip screens to the receivers.  The loss of Linebacker Jerod Mayo hurts the defense, because he has the ability to play the run and cover quick running backs and tight ends.

The Jets have an aggressive team, and will fight the whole game.  Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez looked solid last week, and he should do well this week, because New England's defense is a lot younger than it once was, and susceptible to giving up points.  I think Leon Washington is going to have a big game.  He's better than Fred Jackson, and he tore them to shreds last week.

This is going to be a shootout.  I was thinking about picking the Jets, but I can't bet against Tom Brady.  Final score: 38-35 New England.

St. Louis at Washington

The Rams started their game well last week, but faded quickly.  Running Back Steven Jackson is by far their best player, but I think Washington has the proper players to contain him.  This team has some talent on their lines, but possess many deficiencies at the skill positions.  

The Redskins played the Giants tough last week.  This is a game they should win easily.  Running Back Clinton Portis should have well over 100 yards rushing, and Jason Campbell should have a nice game passing the ball.

This game could get out of hand quickly.  Final score: 38-10 Washington.

Week 2 Game Preview Part 1

For my game breakdowns, I'll review the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, beginning with the road team.  Then, I'll come to a conclusion and predict a final score.

New Orleans at Philadelphia:

The Saints feature the best passing game in the NFL, behind quarterback Drew Brees throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meacham, and Tight End Jeremy Shockey.  Also, they boast a solid running game with Mike Bell and Reggie Bush.  Starter Pierre Thomas may enter this game, but will have limited touches coming off a knee injury.  Their weaknesses lie in their defense, as they gave up a lot of points to a rebuilt Detroit team.  They have the potential to get into many shoot outs.

The Eagles strengths are their passing game, which tends to be in the top ten on an annual basis.  However, they are most likely starting backup Kevin Kolb.  In his limited action, he's left a lot to be desired.  Running back Brian Westbrook is a stud, and can cause matchup problems with linebackers and safeties.  The loss of Middle Linebacker Stew Bradley is going to hurt them this week.  He's tough against the running game, and athletic enough to defend Tight Ends.

This is going to be a closer game than most think, but there are two points in favor to New Orleans.  First, Shockey has killed the Eagles when he was a member of the Giants.  Without Bradley, I think he'll have a big game.  Second, McNabb's injury and Kolb starting could make a potential shoot out a recipe for disaster.  I think the Eagles Defense limits the Brees show to 24 points, but Kolb doesn't seem ready for prime time.  I hope that's not the case, but the evidence points to the contrary.  Final score: 24-17 Saints.

 

Carolina at Atlanta

The Panthers have a lot to play for this week.  It's a division game, and quarterback Jake Delhomme has played terribly in his previous two games.  His job is on the line, and he has to get the ball to star Wide Receiver Steve Smith.  Carolina's main strength is their running game behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Atlanta's running game burned the Panthers the last time they played.  I believe Running Back Michael Turner scored four touchdowns the last time they played.  Their defense had a big game against Miami last week, another team predicated against the run.

This game has the makings of a blowout.  However, I suspect Delhomme to play for his job and the team to rally around him.  In the end, I think the Falcons have too much talent for the Panthers to overcome.  Final score: 21-13 Falcons.

Minnesota at Detroit

This is another divisional game.  The Vikings have the best running back in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, a talented offensive line, and a defensive line loaded with Pro Bowlers.  Rookie Percy Harvin can wreak havoc, by causing matchup problems all over the field.  Future Hall of Famer Brett Favre is at the controls of the quarterback position.  If he isn't under pressure, he typically doesn't force the ball down the field- leading to the game-altering interceptions.  The secondary is the weak link to the defense, even though it wasn't exploited last week in Cleveland.

The Lions are a team in rebuilding mode, but they gave up 45 points last week.  As good as the Saints are, they allowed 6 touchdown passes.  This team does have good players in wide Receiver Calvin Johnson and Running Back Kevin Smith.

This game should be a blowout, but there should be signs of improvement from rookie Matthew Stafford.  Final score: 35-10 Minnesota.

Cincinnati at Green Bay

The Bengals have a talented offensive group.  Carson Palmer is another week removed from his ankle sprain.  Wide Receiver Chad Ochocinco looked very solid last week against Denver.  The big question is how will they respond following the heartbreaking loss last week?  I think they have some holes in the secondary that could be exploited.

The Packers are led by talented Quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  He had a very nice game against the Bears.  Greg Jennings could have a big game leading this deep group of receivers.  Running Back Ryan Grant needs to get going to unleash the passing game.

The Packers should win this game handily, but I can see Cincinnati make a game out of this.  final core: 28-17 Green Bay.

NFL Preview- NFC East

Same goes for this post as the others.

1. New York Giants (11-5): As an Eagles fan, typing the Giants finishing in first hurts.  However, they have the components for a deep playoff run.  I'm not a big Eli Manning guy.  When pressured, he tends to throw off his back foot and make questionable decisions.  However, he is a good caretaker from the quarterback position.  I would never have him on my fantasy teams, because its a team predicated on the run.  He has an interesting mix of targets to throw to.  Wide Receivers Steve Smith and Mario Manningham should be good match plays.  Smith is particularly good for PPR leagues.  I had Domenik Hixon as my fantasy sleeper this season, but following the first game, it doesn't appear that way.  Tight End Kevin Boss is a solid player, and is an intriguing matchup play.

As previously mentioned, the running game is staple in the Giants offense.  Brandon Jacobs is the hammer to the offense, and gets spelled Ahmad Bradshaw, who's lightning in a bottle.  Jacobs should be a weekly start, and Bradshaw is an intriguing flex play.

The defense is solid, and they have the best pass rush in the NFL.  It should be started every week.

Prediction: This team should should finish second in the conference, but lose to New Orleans in the second round of the playoffs.

2. Philadelphia (10-6): My favorite team.  I think they should be good.  They have a lot of question marks on the defense, which I'll get into later.  Plus, the rib injury to Quarterback Donovan McNabb potentially puts backup Kevin Kolb in the lineup.  A scary thought.  For fantasy purposes, McNabb will be a top ten quarterback, because Coach Andy Reid likes to throw the ball.  The targets are numerous and talented for McNabb to throw the ball.  The Wide Receivers are DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, rookie Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant.  Jackson should be a weekly start.  He's developing into a star.  Curtis, Maclin, and Avant are best suited as bye week fill-ins.  Tight End Brent Celek is a sleeper at the position, and should finish the season in the top twelve in the position.

Running Back Brian Westbrook has been a fantasy superstar for years.  He may not be the player he once was, or have as many touches, due to the arrival of rookie Shady McCoy.  However, he should be a weekly fantasy starter.  McCoy is a good handcuff to Westbrook, and should be played whenever Westbrook is out of the lineup.

As I mentioned earlier, the defense has question marks.  Genius Defensive Coordinator passed away this offseason.  His replacement is Sean McDermitt, a young coach who's been in the system for a decade.  They lost future Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins to Denver in free agency.  Talented Middle Linebacker Stew Bradley was lost for the season in preseason.  They have talent, and should be a good matchup play for fantasy purposes.

Prediction: This team loses to Seattle in Safeco Field in the second round of the playoffs.

3. Dallas (8-8): There's a lot of talent in Dallas.  However, their offensive line is not impressive, especially if a starter goes down.  Quarterback Tony Romo is a great September player, and should be good for fantasy purposes.  His targets are good, especially Tight End Jason Witten.  He should be started weekly.  The Wide Receivers Roy Williams, Miles Austin, and Patrick Crayton will probably split targets, and are flex plays at best.  I trust Williams and Crayton more than Austin.

The group of running backs are among the most talented in the NFL.  Marian Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice should have wonderful seasons.  Barber should be a weekly start.  Jones and Choice are matchup plays, at this point.  I expect Jones to be a star by the end of the season.

The front seven of the defense are talented, led by Linebacker DeMarcus Ware.  Other than oft-injured Cornerback Terence Newman, I don't trust their secondary.  This defense is a matchup play.  Plus, Jones returns kicks for them.

Prediction: This is a .500 team that will start strong and fade to end the season.

4. Washington (6-10): This is not a properly built team.  Owner Daniel Snyder tries to buy championships through free agency.  They have traded away too many draft picks, and haven't built from within.  Quarterback Jason Campbell could be a good player, but this is the first time he's played in the same offensive system for two consecutive seasons.  Campbell is at best a backup fantasy quarterback.  His Tight End Chris Cooley is one of the top players in the position, and should be a weekly start.  The Wide Receivers are Santana Moss, Malcolm Kelly, Antwaan Randel-El, and Devin Thomas.  Moss is a good flex play.  Kelly, Randel-El, and Thomas are matchup/bye week plays.

Running Back Clinton Portis is a stud.  However, he's been overused the past couple of seasons, and will probably breakdown by the end of the season.

The acquisition of Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth was a big coup in the offseason.  He should strengthen a strong defense.  Plus, rookie Brian Orakpo appears to be the real deal as a pass rusher.  This should be a good fantasy defense, and definitely good for matchup plays.

Prediction:  This team needs an influx of talent to grow to contend in this division.

NFL Preview- NFC North

Just like the other ones.

1. Green Bay (10-6): I like the Packers this season.  They have a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball.  It starts with Quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  He is a star in the making, and a top five fantasy quarterback.  He has a deep and talented group of targets to throw to.  They are led by Wide Receivers Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Robert Ferguson, and Jordy Nelson, and Tight Ends Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley.  Jennings is a must start fantasy player weekly, and is a top ten receiver.  Driver is an excellent, reliable flex play.  Ferguson, Nelson and Lee are nothing more than bye week fill-ins.  Finley had the breakout training camp, and has star potential, but with the tight end position so deep this year, he's more of a matchup play.

The running game is strong behind Running Back Ryan Grant.  He looks better after an injury-plagued 2008 season.  Grant is also a worthy number two fantasy back.

The new Defensive Coordinator is Dom Capers, and he's one of the best in the league at running the 3-4 scheme.  They have a talented secondary, and the pass-rushers to pressure the passer.  This should be a solid defense to use on a weekly basis.

Prediction: This team is very strong, but is probably a year away from serious contention.  They lose in the first round to Philadelphia.

2. Minnesota (9-7): A lot of people think the Vikings will make a deep run into the playoffs.  I'm not one of them.  Two reason's they won't: Coach Brad Childress and Quarterback Brett Favre.  Childress has made many questionable decisions since becoming the coach in Minnesota, and Favre missed all of training camp, all the mini-camps, and had offseason surgery on his throwing arm.  Here's a fact I heard last season that I found interesting.  At the time, it was the third time in four years that he missed significant time in training camp.  During the season his numbers suffered and his interceptions increased.  The year he went through all the camps was 2007, and he had a monster season.  His targets are solid in Wide Receivers Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and rookie Percy Harvin and Tight End Visanthe Shiancoe.  Berrian is a flex play, and Rice and Shiancoe are matchup plays.  I like Harvin to be a breakout sensation his rookie season.  He can many things on the field and possesses dynamite speed.  Right now he's an interesting matchup play.

The Vikings have arguably the best player in the NFL in Running Back Adrian Peterson.  Peterson went off first in most draft boards this season, so I would start him every week.  His backup is Chester Taylor, and he gets a touches himself, so he works as a matchup/bye week fill-in.

This defense improved a lot last season with the addition of Defensive End Jared Allen.  They should be excellent against the run, but need to improve against the pass.  From a fantasy prospective, this a good defense, especially since your getting Harvin as the return man.

Prediction: This team just misses the playoffs.

3. Chicago (8-8): Once they acquired Quarterback Jay Cutler, many believed this was the team to beat in the division.  While Cutler is a solid player, he needs to get used to a new system, a less talented group of receivers and offensive line, and doesn't have a record better than .500 as a starter.  Cutler should finish the season in the eight-twelve range at his position, but needs to get over the horrendous start on Sunday night.  His targets are Wide Receivers Devin Hester, a very explosive player, Earl Bennett, his former college teammate, and Tight End Greg Olsen.  Hester is a good flex play, while Bennett is more of a matchup/bye week fill-in.  Olsen should finish the season as a top ten tight end, and should start on a weekly basis.

Running Back Matt Forte is a stud.  He didn't touch the ball enough on Sunday night.  Plus, he doesn't have anyone to vulture carries, as his backup Kevin Jones is out for the season.  Forte should be a weekly start, since he was a top-five pick in most leagues.

The Defense suffered a big-loss when Linebacker Brian Urlacher dislocated his wrist on Sunday night.  He's a big-time player, and they will suffer without him.  I pegged this defense as a top ten prior to the season, considering Hester is the return man, but I cannot recommend them more than a matchup play after Urlacher's injury.

Prediction: They are a year away from playoff contention, as they deal with Urlacher's loss, and assimilating Cutler into the system.

4. Detroit (4-12): New coach Jim Schwartz as a lot on his plate, because he has to turn around the worst team in NFL history.  I think he can do it, but the talent is a ways off.  Rookie Quarterback Matthew Stafford has the ability to be a big-time player, but will take his lumps this season.  He'll be waiver wire fodder for fantasy teams this season.  He does have two intriguing targets in Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson and rookie Tight End Brandon Pettigrew.  Johnson will end the season as the number one wide receiver. They will be down a lot, so they'll have to throw, and he's one of the best in the game.  Pettigrew will catch people by surprise.  Since he's a rookie, not many people know about him, but he was clearly the best player at his position in the draft.  And for a young quarterback, a tight end can be a good security blanket.  Right now, he's a matchup play, but I can see Pettigrew finishing the season in the ten-twelve range at his position.

For a team that will have to throw the ball a bunch, they have a talented Running Back in Kevin Smith.  He should be a top fifteen back this season, and can catch passes out of the backfield, so he'll be useful in PPR leagues.

The defense is still a work in progress, and Schwartz is a defensive coach, so he'll turn them around, just not this season.  I can't recommend them, until they increase the talent level on that side of the ball.

Predicition: This team will be much improved and well-coached, but need an influx of talent if they desire sustained growth.

NFL Preview- NFC South

Same rules as the other posts.

1. New Orleans (11-5): This team has been an offensive juggernaut for the last several years under Coach Sean Payton and Quarterback Drew Brees.  Brees is arguably the best player in the NFL, and has the potential to break Dan Marino's passing record.  He has many talented players to throw to.  Wide Receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, and Robert Meacham and Tight End Jeremy Shockey are solid targets.  Colston is a fantasy starter, while Moore, Henderson, and Meacham are good flex plays.  Shockey is a good player, but I don't see him as a top ten player at his position.

Running Back Pierre Thomas's injury is a little disconcerting, but Mike Bell should pick up the slack.  Reggie Bush's knee injury limits his ceiling, but he should do well in PPR leagues.

The Defense should improve with Darren Sharper at the Safety position, so they shouldn't be so porous in the secondary.  I'd say they're a more of a matchup play, but have improved over the past couple of seasons.

Prediction: This team wins the NFC, but loses to New England in the Super Bowl.

2. Atlanta (9-7): This team is an incredibly improving team.  Quarterback Matt Ryan is an emerging superstar.  His growth will lead this team to a championship one day.  He should be a top ten fantasy quarterback this season.  His targets are solid in Wide Receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and Tight End Tony Gonzalez.  White and Gonzalez should be top 5 performers at their respective positions, and should start weekly.  Jenkins is more of a matchup/flex play.

Running Back Michael Turner had a monster season last year, but did most of his damage to inferior teams and on a high volume of carries.  I expect his workload to be cut into somewhat by backup Jerrious Norwood to keep him fresh for the full season.  Norwood is good bye week option, and occasional matchup play, because he is an explosive player.

The Defense has improved with the acquision of Mike Peterson at Middle Linebacker.  He proved it with a big game against Miami on Sunday.  This defense may experience growing pains, but should be a good matchup play, especially if you're streaming defenses.

Prediction: The future is bright for this team, but I see them getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs by division rival New Orleans.

3. Carolina (6-10): This is another team I believe overachieved last season.  And it seems every other season they make the playoffs, and then the following season are rebuilding.  In my opinion, a lot of the ebb and flow is due to Quarterback Jake Delhomme.  He's made more money based on, essentially two great seasons.  He's 34 and had Tommy John surgery two years ago.  Those facts, plus the horrible playoff game last season gave me pause about them going into this season.  Delhomme proved my beliefs against the Eagles on Sunday.  I won't be surprised if he's replaced at some point during the season.  I don't recommend him at all for fantasy.  In fact, the only player in the passing game for Carolina I like is Wide Receiver Steve Smith, and Delhomme hurts his ranking.  Despite his quarterback, Smith should be a weekly fantasy start.

The running game is the strength of the Carolina offense.  DeAngelo Williams is a superstar, but backup Jonathan Stewart cuts into his carries, thus limiting his ceiling.  Williams should be a weekly fantasy start, while Stewart is a flex play, when healthy.

I'm wary about the defense, because of the uncertainty surrounding star Defensive End Julius Peppers.  He's more a distraction than a leader, but they didn't have an opportunity to show their potential due to the turnovers from Delhomme, and had to play from behind the whole game.  I'll give them a mulligan for the week, but I have to watch them play more before recommending them for fantasy.

Prediction: This team is limited as long as Delhomme is still the quarterback.

4.  Tampa Bay (3-13): This is a team in a rebuilding mode.  For now the starting Quarterback is Byron Leftwich.  He's a good veteran presence, but should be a second string quarterback at this point in his career.  He is not a good fantasy play by any stretch.  This is due to the strength in the running game.  His top targets are Wide Receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton and Tight End Kellen Winslow, Jr.  Bryant has been injured all season, and Winslow has had a variety of injuries throughout his career.  Bryant should be seen as no more than a flex play when he returns.  Winslow should be a top ten tight end, but his vulnerability to remain healthy hurts his fantasy value.  Clayton is no more than a bye week fill-in.

The running game is the strength of this team.  They have three good runners in Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham.  Williams is a feel-good story returning from a catastrophic knee injury.  Ward was a big free agent signing from the New York Giants.  They should take the bulk of the carries.  Graham, who's had two straight solid fantasy seasons, seems to be the odd man out, in terms of touches.  Williams and Ward are good flex plays on a weekly basis.

The defense is in flux with the purging of many mainstays from old Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffen, such as Linebacker Derrick Brooks.  Perhaps, in a few years it will come together, I don't see it this season.  Thus, I'm not able to recommend this defense this season.

Prediction: This is a team in rebuilding mode, and need an influx of talent.

NFL Preview- NFC West

Now, its time for the NFC preview.

1. Seattle (12-4): This team is candidate for most improved team.  It was a comedy of injuries for them last season.  Also, former Coach Mike Holmgren's impending retirement loomed over the team.  Coach Jim Mora, Jr. has hand success in the league in Atlanta a few years back.  The return of Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is huge for them.  When healthy, he's a top ten quarterback.  He also has solid targets in Wide Receivers TJ Houshmandzahdeh and Nate Burleson and Tight End Jon Carlson.  Rookie Deon Butler may sneak up owners, as well.  Houshmandzahdeh and Carlson should start every week for fantasy owners.  Burleson makes an interesting matchup/flex play option.  Butler is a sleeper for deeper leagues.

The running game is not too impressive, but Julius Jones should start most weeks for fantasy owners, since he'll receive the bulk of the carries.  His backup is Edgerrin James is more of name than productive fantasy player at this point.

The defense is solid, and I'm impressed by their linebacking corps in Lofa Tatupu, rookie Aaron Curry, and Leroy Hill.  Although, Hill's injury hurts them a little bit.  This is a good matchup play.

Prediction: This team wins homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, but is upset by New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.

2. Arizona (9-7): I believe in the Super Bowl runner up curse.  And I believe Arizona will continue the trend.  They rode a hot hand last season to reach the Super Bowl.  Kurt Warner is a great Quarterback, but he's never played a full 16 game season in back to back years in his entire career.  He has probably the best group of receivers in the NFL in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston.  The early season injuries to Boldin and Breaston hurt them short-term, in what they'll be able to run in the passing game.  Fitzgerald and Boldin are fantasy starters, barring injury.  Breaston is a good flex play.

The running backs are not spectacular, but could be good bye week fill-ins with Tim Hightower and rookie Chris Wells.

The defense had a good Week 1, but San Francisco is not an offensive juggernaut, so I'd like to watch them play some more until I'd recommend them as something more than a matchup play.

Prediction: The Super Bowl curse continues, but this is a talented team.

3. San Francisco (7-9): Coach Mike Singletary has brought a necessary tough attitude to the Bay area.  This team will fight hard, it doesn't quite have the talent yet.  Quarterback Shaun Hill is probably better suited as a backup than a starter, but he will be efficient for them.  The ageless Wide Receiver Isaac Bruce is the top target, and a decent flex play.  Wide Receiver Josh Morgan has received a lot of fantasy hype, but hasn't put it together on the field yet.  Draft pick Michael Crabtree would be in the discussion if he didn't decide to hold out with the foolish hope getting more money.  Tight End Vernon Davis is typically drafted, but does minimal fantasy damage.

Under Singletary, this team will be a run first team.  Running backs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee fit the bill.  Gore should be a weekly start, but Coffee is a player to watch.  He has star potential.

This team is all about defense, and Linebacker Patrick Willis is clone of his coach on the field.  I wouldn't be surprised if this defense finishes as a top-15 defense.  

Prediction: This team is year away from contending in this division.

4. St. Louis (2-14): I like Coach Steve Spagnulo.  He will turn this team around.  It just won't be this season.  Quarterback Marc Bulger has suffered too many injuries, and isn't the same player he once was.  He has minimal fantasy value.  The only two targets are even worth considering are Wide Receiver Donnie Avery and Tight End Randy McMichael.  Both may put up decent numbers, but are nothing more than bye week fill-ins.

Running Back Steven Jackson is the only player on this team I'd feel comfortable starting on a weekly basis.  He's a number two fantasy back that was taken in the first round in many drafts.  He's suffered too many injuries and this team is young and rebuilding.

I will not trust this defense.  There has been too much turnover to like them this season.  They will improve, but not enough for fantasy purposes.

Prediction: This team has a dearth of talent, which will need replenishing.  Spagnulo will turn them around, but not this season.

NFL Preview- AFC West

Same rules as previously mentioned on other posts.

1. San Diego (13-3): This is more a reflexion of the division, than this team.  I don't believe Coach Norv Turner is suited to be a head coach, but I think he's a great offensive coordinator.  His teams tend to be too soft.  The game against Oakland on Monday was evidence to that.  They won due to superior talent.  That begins with Quarterback Philip Rivers.  His numbers have improved every season.  For fantasy purposes, he's a top ten quarterback, and should start most games, but to me with their running game, which I'll get to momentarily, he's in the in the range of eight-ten.  Not a top five guy, which is where he tended to be drafted.  His targets are solid in the underrated Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson and Tight End Antonio Gates.  Jackson should end the season as a top 20 wide receiver, and Gates is arguably the top tight end in fantasy.

The aforementioned running game is strong.  San Diego possesses two strong running backs in more fantasy super duper star LaDanian Tomlinson and the electric Darren Sproles.  These two should start every week, and they are the reason Rivers won't be a top five quarterback, because their carries will cut into his passing attempts.

The defense should improve significantly with the return of Shawn Merriman.  He missed most of last season, and the defense suffered without his presence.  Also, Sproles is prominently involved in the return game, so this a sleeper on defense for fantasy purposes.

Prediction: Due to the soft division games, this team should easily win it, and get a first round bye.  I see them losing to a rejuvenated New England team in the second round of the playoffs.

2. Kansas City (6-10): This team is clearly in rebuilding mode.  They traded future Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez in the off-season, and traded for young Quarterback Matt Cassel.  The injury to Cassel modifies his fantasy value down slightly.  However, backup Brodie Croyle had a huge game against the vaunted Baltimore defense in Week 1, so there is potential for an explosive offense under Coach Todd Hailey.  Cassel has solid targets in wide receivers Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, and Bobby Engram.  For fantasy, Bowe should start weekly, while Bradley and Engram are more bye week fill-ins/match up plays.

The running game is questionable at best.  Running Back Larry Johnson was a fantasy star just a couple of years ago.  However, he's had a lot of ware and tear on him, and has backup Jamaal Charles nipping at his heals.  I expect the team to be down a lot, so this further limits the potential of their backs.

This is a defense that's a work in progress.  They are attempting to switch their base from 4-3 to 3-4.  I wouldn't recommend this defense for fantasy purposes.

Prediction:  General Manager Scott Pioli came from New England to build this team, so this team should be good in a couple of years.  They need additional players.

3. Denver (4-12): This team appears to be a mess.  Coach Josh McDaniels gave up talented Quarterback Jay Cutler, and acquired Kyle Orton.  Definitely a drop off in talent.  They also gave up a first round pick in the 2010 draft to draft Cornerback Alphonso Smith in the second round.  There's a lot of pressure for McDaniels to produce this season, but I don't see it.  Orton is a very solid backup quarterback, but not a player to construct an offense around.  He does possess a solid offensive line, and has two spectacular wide receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon (Terrell Owens, Jr.) Marshall.  Tight End Tony Scheffler is a good player when healthy.  I expect Denver to be down a lot, so Royal and Marshall should start weekly.  Scheffler is more of a matchup play.

The running backs have talent.  Rookie Knowshawn Moreno has the potential to be a star.  Backups Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis are solid players as well.  Moreno has fantasy flex value, but Buckhalter and Hillis will cut into his touches, so he probably won't break out until 2010.

This is another defense in flux.  They had a good week against Cincinnati, but I don't see them maintaining a low points allowed all season.  Free agent Safety Brian Dawkins should bring a toughness to the defense, but I don't think they'll get enough pressure up front to allow their talented secondary to make plays.  I don't recommend this defense for fantasy purposes.

Prediction: This is going to be a long year for Denver.  At least, they got off to  a good start.

4. Oakland (3-13): This team impressed me with its toughness against San Diego on Monday.  Give credit to Coach Tom Cable for instilling the smash mouth mentality.  This team is very basic in its approach, which will hurt them over the course of this season, but the disciple may help them turn the ship around in the long run.  It's hard to get behind a team with JaMarcus Russell at Quarterback.  He misses too many throws.  Granted he made a great throw to give them the lead with two minutes left, but his completion percentage was well below 50% and that[s not good enough for the NFL.  That said, the receiving options are intriguing.  Tight End Zach Miller is a solid target and should start for most fantasy teams.  The rookie Wide Receiver Lewis had a nice game on Monday.  He may be an intriguing bye week option in deeper leagues.

Running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush are very good flex plays, because this team will run the ball.  McFadden will also make a lot of receptions, so he should be good for PPR leagues.

The defense is tough, and the acquision of Defensive End Richard Seymour from New England should help them.  They ran many basic formations, which Steve Young noted on the telecast, but ran them well.  I need to see them a couple of more times before recommending them as a matchup play.

Prediction: This team is still ways away, but the seeds of improvement are showing.