Jacksonville at Houston
This was the shootout I expected it to be. Looking at the numbers, these teams were evenly matched, as the hits, penalties, and total yards were virtually identical. Jacksonville won this game for two reasons. They capitalized on their red zone chances (100% compared to 60%) and had a +1 turnover differential.
Chicago at Seattle
Another close game, and the numbers bear it out. Seattle outgained the Bears by about 30 total yards, and had fewer penalties. The time of possession and turnover battles were even. Chicago won this game because Cutler was better protected and they had more red zone opportunities with a 50% conversion rate. I suspect the outcome of this game would have been different if Hasselbeck was healthy and able to play.
New Orleans at Buffalo
The Saints dominated this won. They held the ball longer, gained over 130 more yards, had a +1 turnover edge, and took advantage of 50% of their red zone opportunities, while allowing zero for the Bills. Buffalo could not protect Edwards, as he took 14 hits on the day, nearly five times more than the Saints allowed to Brees.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
At first glance, the Steelers should have taken this one. But a closer look at the numbers shows that Cincinnati took advantage of the few breaks they did receive. Even though they allowed 100 more yards, and had a nine minute disadvantage of possession, they had a 50% conversion rate on red zone opportunities. On the other hand, the Steelers were 33%. The Bengals hit Roethlisberger more, had one fewer penalty, and had a +1 turnover edge.
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