Washington at Detroit
Offensively, the Redskins need to keep Jason Campbell clean, so he can throw the ball. He's faced moderate pressure this season, as he's taken four sacks and been hit on six occasions. Washington on average has gained 70 more yards per game than Detroit, giving themselves two additional touchdown opportunities. However, they've capitalized on only 25% of their chances, whereas the Lions have converted 50% for theirs for touchdowns.
Defensively, the Lions have created a surprising amount of pressure, as last season their pass rush was nonexistent, with nine hits to the opposing quarterback. They've gotten themselves in trouble with red zone conversions allowed (60%), turnover differential (-2), and most on average have given up more than 100 yards than the Redskins defense.
After last week, I think Washington will be motivated, and will be more aggressive on both sides of the ball. Detroit is improving, but have further growing pains. Final score:24-13 Washington.
Green Bay at St. Louis
On offense, both teams have given up too many quarterback hits (Green Bay with 19 and St. Louis with 12). The Packers have a strong red zone offense as they've converted touchdowns on 60% of their opportunities, while the Rams have converted on just 25% of their chances.
Both defenses have allowed too many red zone opportunities (Green Bay with seven and St. Louis with eight). The two major differences between these two teams are quarterback pressure and turnover differential. The Packers have a major edge in both with three more sacks, on three additional hits, and a +5 compared to a -2 turnover differential.
Green Bay should keep Aaron Rodgers relatively clean, while taking advantage of a young team. Final score 31-10 Green Bay.
San Francisco at Minnesota
After glancing over the numbers, this should be a tight game. On both sides of the ball, the numbers are fairly even. They've gained, essentially, the same amount of yards. Both teams have allowed too much pressure on the quarterback. The 49ers have given up ten hits to the Vikings 13, a stat that surprised me, as Adrian Peterson has shouldered the load, so they're not throwing the ball too much. The Vikings have had five additional red zone chances, and have a 55% conversion rate, compared to a 50% rate for the 49ers.
On defense, both teams have created pressure, as San Francisco has ten hits, while Minnesota has nine. I believe the key difference is the turnover differential, where both teams are positive. The 49ers are +2, as the Vikings have done better at +4.
This should be a close game. It will go down to the wire. Final score 17-14 Minnesota.
Atlanta at New England
This game will be closer than most imagine. On offense, Matt Ryan has been relatively unscathed, while Tom Brady has taken thirteen hits already. Both teams have had the same amount of red zone chances. New England's converted on 38% of theirs, Atlanta's converted on 50%. The Patriots have gained more yards, but that hasn't led to more points.
On defense, both teams have sack percentages in conjunction with their hits (Atlanta at 63%, New England at 67%). The Falcons have given up about 85 more yards on average on defense, however they make up for it with better turnover differential (+4 compared to New England's Even). And both teams have a 60% opposition red zone conversion.
The Falcons have looked much better than the Patriots this season, and the numbers skew a bit in their favor. I think this will be a high scoring, close affair. Final score 31-28 Atlanta.
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