Jacksonville at Houston
On offense, both teams have gained about the same number of yards and have given up a lot of hits to the quarterback. Houston has been a little more proficient in converting their red zone opportunities to touchdowns, going 67% compared to Jacksonville's 50%.
Defensively, both teams have given up yards, Houston 50 more per game on average. Both teams are +1 in the turnover battle, and have high red zone conversion rates against (Jacksonville 75% and Houston 67%). Also, both teams have generated minimal pressure on opposing quarterbacks, combining for a total of nine hits this season.
I'm taking Houston, because they have more firepower on the offense. There should be a lot of points scored here. Final score 41-28 Houston.
Chicago at Seattle
Based upon the numbers, both teams are evenly matched. Both have allowed minimal hits to the quarterback, and have average red zone conversions (Chicago at 40% and Seattle at 50%). Seattle has averaged about 50 additional yards of offense per game, but that stat must be tempered by anticipating them playing without Matt Hasselbeck.
On defense, both teams have pressured the opposing quarterback, but haven't forced too many turnovers. They each have a negative takeaway ratio (Chicago at -2 and Seattle at -3) The big difference defensively is Seattle hasn't allowed a red zone touchdown, and Chicago has allowed 60% of those opportunities go for six.
This should be a hard fought game. Seattle has a great crowd, but without Hasselbeck, I'll have to take the Bears. Final score 17-13 Chicago.
New Orleans at Buffalo
The Saints have a terrific offense. Drew Brees has been kept clean by the offensive line, and are averaging about 110 yards more per game than Buffalo. They also have converted on 75% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. On the other hand, Buffalo has allowed Trent Edwards to take five times as many hits, and have score touchdowns on only 33% of their red zone chances.
On defense, the Saints have been a surprise, as they've allowed 50 yards less per game than the Bills, and have a +3 turnover differential, while Buffalo is Even. In addition, the Saints have allowed only 33% conversion rate on red zone chances, though they've given up nine attempts, while the Bills have allowed 71% to be converted. Buffalo's strength has been pressuring the quarterback, evidenced by its 18 hits.
In the end, the Saints offense will be too much. Final score 38-21 New Orleans.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
On the outset, one would think Pittsburgh would destroy Cincinnati. But looking at the numbers, it doesn't indicate any such dominance. The Steelers average about 20 additional yards per game, but that's their biggest advantage. The Bengals have protected Palmer better than the Steelers have with Roethlisberger, and have capitalized on its red zone opportunities (83% compared to 40%)
There were some surprises looking at the defensive numbers. First, Cincinnati has allowed only about ten more yards per game. And the biggest surprise was the differential in sacks and quarterback hits. Pittsburgh has hit the quarterback five times, while sacking him twice. The Bengals have 15 hits and nine sacks. Both teams thus far have played lousy red zone defense at 60% for Pittsburgh and 67% for Cincinnati, and have low turnover differential, both at -3.
As good as I think Pittsburgh is, and two field goals away from being undefeated, they are playing without Troy Polomaulo. He is the difference maker. I'm taking Cincinnati in a close one. Final score 13-10 Cincinnati.
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