Week 3 Game Preview- Part 4

Same breakdown as the other posts.

Denver at Oakland

Both teams have done well at protecting the quarterback, and each have a 50% red zone conversion rate.  However, Denver has been much more effective moving the ball, as they average about 110 more total yards per game.  I suspect this is due to the atrocious play of JaMarcus Russell.

On defense, both teams have gotten moderate pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Denver has done an excellent job at limiting the number of red zone opportunities to three, with just a 33% conversion rate.  The Broncos also possess a greater turnover differential (+4 to +1).

I like the effect Oakland's crowd has on opposing teams, but Russell needs to substantially increase his play if Oakland is going to improve.  Final score 13-7 Denver.

Miami at San Diego

The Dolphins have given up a lot of sacks, despite allowing minimal hit.  It tells me when a defender gets to Pennington, he takes him down.  Conversely, the Chargers have given up too many hits on Philip Rivers.  The Chargers have gained an additional 70 total yards per game.  They also have a whopping nine red zone chances, but have only converted three of them.  Whereas the Dolphins have converted on 75% of their opportunities.

Defensively, the Chargers have given up an average of twenty additional yards per game, and allowed a 57% red zone conversion rate, while the Dolphins have given up a 40% conversion rate.  San Diego's turnover differential is much greater, as well (Even compared to-5)

If Miami allows the Chargers to have the ball during the game, they should win this handily.  However, the Dolphins do well with their limited opportunities, so I see this game being close. Final score 21-20 San Diego.

Indianapolis at Arizona

The Colts have done a good job at protecting Peyton Manning, while Arizona has given up a moderate amount of hits to Kurt Warner.  Both teams have taken advantage of their red zone opportunities (Indianapolis at 67% and Arizona at 75%).

On defense, the Cardinals have attacked the opposing quarterback well with eight sacks on ten hits.  The Colts have had moderate success, getting seven quarterback hits.  Both teams are too lenient in the red zone giving up 75% (Colts) and 60% (Cardinals) respectively.  While the Cardinals are Even in the turnover department, while Colts have yet to turn the ball over.

In the end, the team to pick is the one to yet turn it over.  (Watch me jinx them!)  Final score 31-24 Indianapolis.

Carolina at Dallas

Both teams have given pressure to the quarterback.  The Panthers have allowed substantially more pressure, than the Cowboys, even though they've allowed nine hits.  Dallas has out gained the Panthers by 115 yards per game, and converted on 83% of their red zone opportunities.  Meanwhile, Carolina has converted 50% rate.

Carolina has had minimal pressure on the quarterback, while the Cowboys have ten hits.  Dallas has a -4 turnover differential, while the Panthers have a -5 differential.  The number against Carolina is their red zone against rate at 86%.  The Cowboys have allowed 120 additional yards per game.

The Cowboys should win this game, due to its major yards gained and red zone proficiency advantages.  Final score 27-13 Dallas.