1. Indianapolis (11-5): This team went through some changes in the off-season. Coach Tony Dungy, as well as a couple of other coaches retired, and star Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison remains unsigned. For many teams, new Coach Jim Cauldwell could have rough start with so much change. However, he still has Quarterback Peyton Manning. A healthy Manning is a top-three quarterback. His top targets are Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne and Tight End Dallas Clark. All three are cogs to good fantasy teams. The injury to Wide Receiver to Anthony Gonzalez was concerning, but rookies Austin Collie and Pierre Garson should step up to have productive seasons.
Most people tend to believe with Manning at quarterback that this team has no use of the run. That couldn't be farther from the truth. Last season, when the running game was in the bottom third of the league, the passing game numbers suffered. With that said, they went out and drafted Donald Brown in the first round in April to share time for the oft-injured Joseph Addai, a one-time fantasy gold-mine. Both are players terrific flex options for fantasy purposes.
The defense still Dwight Freeney, a pass-rushing guru, and a young talented secondary, led by the oft-injured Bob Sanders. This team should be a good second tier defense, even could be found on the waiver wire in some leagues.
Prediction: This team makes it to the second round of the playoffs and loses to Pittsburgh.
2. Houston (10-6) After watching the game against the Jets and witnessing the pummeling Quarterback Matt Schaub took, I wanted to change this prediction. However, I'm not going to allow the first week to sway my opinions. From a fantasy prospective, this team is full of stars. Schaub is a solid number one quarterback, but you better have a good backup with his injury history. His targets in Wide Receivers Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter and Tight End Owen Daniels are very talented indeed. Johnson is a stud, and Daniels's numbers have improved annually. Walter should be fine following an injury in training camp. The line must do a better job keeping Schaub off his back, or this team will be in trouble, as his backup is the turnover prone Rex Grossman.
Running Back Steve Slaton was a great sleep last season, and should continue his maturation into a number one runner. Unlike Sunday, he has to hang on to the ball, or his fantasy stock will drop.
On defense, they're front office has done an excellent job at building from the line. Defensive End Mario Williams is an absolute stud, and the correct pick at number one overall a number of years ago. Linebacker DeMarco Ryans is a star waiting to happen. I like the direction where the defense is going, but the secondary has been lit up in recent seasons. Until I see otherwise, I can't recommend this Defense more than a match up play and bye week fill in.
Prediction: This team makes the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, and loses to New England.
3. Tennessee (8-8): This is another team, after watching the game, that I feel should have a better prediction. But I'm sticking with my initial instincts. I like Coach Jeff Fisher, and believe this team will fight all year long. However, I'm wary Quarterback Kerry Collins will maintain his game manager status. After all, only a couple years ago he was practically written out of the league following a couple of disasterous seasons in Oakland. He has three good Wide Receiver targets in Justin Gage, Nate Washington, and rookie Kenny Britt. Of the three, Gage has the best value. And I can attest he's a good flex play based upon match ups, since I've had him on several fantasy teams in the past. Tight End Bo Scaife has made fantasy noise in the past, as well. I don't see him more than a bye week fill in.
The running game is a staple in Tennessee. Running Back Chris Johnson is a star, and back up LenDale White will get his share of touches over the course of the game. Both players should start most weeks for fantasy purposes.
Defense is the reason I think Tennessee will drop from last season to this one. They lost their main cog in Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth. That man is a one man wrecking crew. On Thursday, they played very well against Pittsburgh, but at the end of the game, when it mattered most, the tackles weren't able to disrupt the pocket, and they were picked apart in the passing game.
Prediction: This team misses the playoffs. They need another year and another draft to reload.
4. Jacksonville (6-10): This team is probably better than the record indicates, but they have too many rookies on the offensive line, and didn't play with a lot of fire at the end of last season. Quarterback David Garrard is a caretaker on offense, but is a sneaky good fantasy quarterback. I just wouldn't feel comfortable starting him as more than a match up play/bye week fill in. They picked Wide Receiver Torry Holt in the offseason. Holt will do better than last season, but his days as a top fantasy wideout are over. He's flex option at best at this point in his career.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew should receive a few more addition looks now that Fred Taylor is in New England. I wouldn't be surprised if back up Greg Jones vultures a few touchdowns, as he's had good fantasy value when given the opportunity.
This is another defense that is rebuilding. Following the Indianapolis game, where they held that tough offense to 14 points, I'm more inclined to take a stronger look at them as a match up play.
Prediction: This team will start strong and fade down the stretch.
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