1. San Diego (13-3): This is more a reflexion of the division, than this team. I don't believe Coach Norv Turner is suited to be a head coach, but I think he's a great offensive coordinator. His teams tend to be too soft. The game against Oakland on Monday was evidence to that. They won due to superior talent. That begins with Quarterback Philip Rivers. His numbers have improved every season. For fantasy purposes, he's a top ten quarterback, and should start most games, but to me with their running game, which I'll get to momentarily, he's in the in the range of eight-ten. Not a top five guy, which is where he tended to be drafted. His targets are solid in the underrated Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson and Tight End Antonio Gates. Jackson should end the season as a top 20 wide receiver, and Gates is arguably the top tight end in fantasy.
The aforementioned running game is strong. San Diego possesses two strong running backs in more fantasy super duper star LaDanian Tomlinson and the electric Darren Sproles. These two should start every week, and they are the reason Rivers won't be a top five quarterback, because their carries will cut into his passing attempts.
The defense should improve significantly with the return of Shawn Merriman. He missed most of last season, and the defense suffered without his presence. Also, Sproles is prominently involved in the return game, so this a sleeper on defense for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: Due to the soft division games, this team should easily win it, and get a first round bye. I see them losing to a rejuvenated New England team in the second round of the playoffs.
2. Kansas City (6-10): This team is clearly in rebuilding mode. They traded future Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez in the off-season, and traded for young Quarterback Matt Cassel. The injury to Cassel modifies his fantasy value down slightly. However, backup Brodie Croyle had a huge game against the vaunted Baltimore defense in Week 1, so there is potential for an explosive offense under Coach Todd Hailey. Cassel has solid targets in wide receivers Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, and Bobby Engram. For fantasy, Bowe should start weekly, while Bradley and Engram are more bye week fill-ins/match up plays.
The running game is questionable at best. Running Back Larry Johnson was a fantasy star just a couple of years ago. However, he's had a lot of ware and tear on him, and has backup Jamaal Charles nipping at his heals. I expect the team to be down a lot, so this further limits the potential of their backs.
This is a defense that's a work in progress. They are attempting to switch their base from 4-3 to 3-4. I wouldn't recommend this defense for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: General Manager Scott Pioli came from New England to build this team, so this team should be good in a couple of years. They need additional players.
3. Denver (4-12): This team appears to be a mess. Coach Josh McDaniels gave up talented Quarterback Jay Cutler, and acquired Kyle Orton. Definitely a drop off in talent. They also gave up a first round pick in the 2010 draft to draft Cornerback Alphonso Smith in the second round. There's a lot of pressure for McDaniels to produce this season, but I don't see it. Orton is a very solid backup quarterback, but not a player to construct an offense around. He does possess a solid offensive line, and has two spectacular wide receivers in Eddie Royal and Brandon (Terrell Owens, Jr.) Marshall. Tight End Tony Scheffler is a good player when healthy. I expect Denver to be down a lot, so Royal and Marshall should start weekly. Scheffler is more of a matchup play.
The running backs have talent. Rookie Knowshawn Moreno has the potential to be a star. Backups Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis are solid players as well. Moreno has fantasy flex value, but Buckhalter and Hillis will cut into his touches, so he probably won't break out until 2010.
This is another defense in flux. They had a good week against Cincinnati, but I don't see them maintaining a low points allowed all season. Free agent Safety Brian Dawkins should bring a toughness to the defense, but I don't think they'll get enough pressure up front to allow their talented secondary to make plays. I don't recommend this defense for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: This is going to be a long year for Denver. At least, they got off to a good start.
4. Oakland (3-13): This team impressed me with its toughness against San Diego on Monday. Give credit to Coach Tom Cable for instilling the smash mouth mentality. This team is very basic in its approach, which will hurt them over the course of this season, but the disciple may help them turn the ship around in the long run. It's hard to get behind a team with JaMarcus Russell at Quarterback. He misses too many throws. Granted he made a great throw to give them the lead with two minutes left, but his completion percentage was well below 50% and that[s not good enough for the NFL. That said, the receiving options are intriguing. Tight End Zach Miller is a solid target and should start for most fantasy teams. The rookie Wide Receiver Lewis had a nice game on Monday. He may be an intriguing bye week option in deeper leagues.
Running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush are very good flex plays, because this team will run the ball. McFadden will also make a lot of receptions, so he should be good for PPR leagues.
The defense is tough, and the acquision of Defensive End Richard Seymour from New England should help them. They ran many basic formations, which Steve Young noted on the telecast, but ran them well. I need to see them a couple of more times before recommending them as a matchup play.
Prediction: This team is still ways away, but the seeds of improvement are showing.
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