1. New Orleans (11-5): This team has been an offensive juggernaut for the last several years under Coach Sean Payton and Quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is arguably the best player in the NFL, and has the potential to break Dan Marino's passing record. He has many talented players to throw to. Wide Receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, and Robert Meacham and Tight End Jeremy Shockey are solid targets. Colston is a fantasy starter, while Moore, Henderson, and Meacham are good flex plays. Shockey is a good player, but I don't see him as a top ten player at his position.
Running Back Pierre Thomas's injury is a little disconcerting, but Mike Bell should pick up the slack. Reggie Bush's knee injury limits his ceiling, but he should do well in PPR leagues.
The Defense should improve with Darren Sharper at the Safety position, so they shouldn't be so porous in the secondary. I'd say they're a more of a matchup play, but have improved over the past couple of seasons.
Prediction: This team wins the NFC, but loses to New England in the Super Bowl.
2. Atlanta (9-7): This team is an incredibly improving team. Quarterback Matt Ryan is an emerging superstar. His growth will lead this team to a championship one day. He should be a top ten fantasy quarterback this season. His targets are solid in Wide Receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and Tight End Tony Gonzalez. White and Gonzalez should be top 5 performers at their respective positions, and should start weekly. Jenkins is more of a matchup/flex play.
Running Back Michael Turner had a monster season last year, but did most of his damage to inferior teams and on a high volume of carries. I expect his workload to be cut into somewhat by backup Jerrious Norwood to keep him fresh for the full season. Norwood is good bye week option, and occasional matchup play, because he is an explosive player.
The Defense has improved with the acquision of Mike Peterson at Middle Linebacker. He proved it with a big game against Miami on Sunday. This defense may experience growing pains, but should be a good matchup play, especially if you're streaming defenses.
Prediction: The future is bright for this team, but I see them getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs by division rival New Orleans.
3. Carolina (6-10): This is another team I believe overachieved last season. And it seems every other season they make the playoffs, and then the following season are rebuilding. In my opinion, a lot of the ebb and flow is due to Quarterback Jake Delhomme. He's made more money based on, essentially two great seasons. He's 34 and had Tommy John surgery two years ago. Those facts, plus the horrible playoff game last season gave me pause about them going into this season. Delhomme proved my beliefs against the Eagles on Sunday. I won't be surprised if he's replaced at some point during the season. I don't recommend him at all for fantasy. In fact, the only player in the passing game for Carolina I like is Wide Receiver Steve Smith, and Delhomme hurts his ranking. Despite his quarterback, Smith should be a weekly fantasy start.
The running game is the strength of the Carolina offense. DeAngelo Williams is a superstar, but backup Jonathan Stewart cuts into his carries, thus limiting his ceiling. Williams should be a weekly fantasy start, while Stewart is a flex play, when healthy.
I'm wary about the defense, because of the uncertainty surrounding star Defensive End Julius Peppers. He's more a distraction than a leader, but they didn't have an opportunity to show their potential due to the turnovers from Delhomme, and had to play from behind the whole game. I'll give them a mulligan for the week, but I have to watch them play more before recommending them for fantasy.
Prediction: This team is limited as long as Delhomme is still the quarterback.
4. Tampa Bay (3-13): This is a team in a rebuilding mode. For now the starting Quarterback is Byron Leftwich. He's a good veteran presence, but should be a second string quarterback at this point in his career. He is not a good fantasy play by any stretch. This is due to the strength in the running game. His top targets are Wide Receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton and Tight End Kellen Winslow, Jr. Bryant has been injured all season, and Winslow has had a variety of injuries throughout his career. Bryant should be seen as no more than a flex play when he returns. Winslow should be a top ten tight end, but his vulnerability to remain healthy hurts his fantasy value. Clayton is no more than a bye week fill-in.
The running game is the strength of this team. They have three good runners in Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham. Williams is a feel-good story returning from a catastrophic knee injury. Ward was a big free agent signing from the New York Giants. They should take the bulk of the carries. Graham, who's had two straight solid fantasy seasons, seems to be the odd man out, in terms of touches. Williams and Ward are good flex plays on a weekly basis.
The defense is in flux with the purging of many mainstays from old Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffen, such as Linebacker Derrick Brooks. Perhaps, in a few years it will come together, I don't see it this season. Thus, I'm not able to recommend this defense this season.
Prediction: This is a team in rebuilding mode, and need an influx of talent.
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