Tennessee at New York Jets
Offensively, both teams have done a good job at protecting the quarterback, both have been hit just a combined 11 times. Tennessee is slightly better at converting their red zone opportunities into touchdowns (50% to New York's 40%). In terms of total yards, the Jets on average are gaining about 75 more per game.
As good as both these teams are at protecting the quarterback, both are good at pressuring the position from a defensive standpoint, as they've combined for 29 hits in just two games apiece. The stats that impress me the most about the Jets are yards against (allowing about 150 fewer on average), turnover differential (+1 compared to -3), and most importantly red zone conversions. Not only has New York not allowed a touchdown, but there have only been three drives this season on them in the red zone.
The way New York's defense has been playing, and the efficiency of the offense, I have to pick the Jets. Final score 20-6 New York.
Kansas City at Philadelphia
My beloved Eagles are limping into this game with injuries to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and DeSean Jackson. They are three key players to lose. However, the Eagles have gained on average 65 more yards per game than the Chiefs. Both teams have a 50% red zone conversion rate, however the Eagles have double the opportunities. The Chiefs need to protect better, as they have a high sack rate (71%) compared to hits.
Defense sets these two teams apart. Even though the Eagles numbers are a bit skewed from the Jake Delhomme implosion from Week 1, they have more than double the sacks and five times as many quarterback hits compared to the Chiefs. Two other stats in the Eagles favor are turnover differential (+2 compared to -1) and red zone conversions against. Teams have a 100% conversion rate into touchdowns against Kansas City, whereas it's, albeit high, 55% against the Eagles.
If the stars were playing or at 100%, I'd say this game is a romp. With the injuries, this game will be a little bit closer, but their talent, plus the motivation from the whopping New Orleans gave them last week, will prevail. Final score 28-10 Philadelphia.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay
I suspect this game will be much closer than most imagine. Tampa Bay has actually averaged 25 more yards per game than the Giants. The difference in the offensive lines is huge, however, as Eli Manning has taken only four hits all season, while Byron Leftwich has taken 20 hits. Another stat that tells me this will be close is red zone conversions. The Giants have yet to score a touchdown in any of their eight trips this season, while Tampa Bay is a perfect 5/5.
Defense is the difference between the two teams in terms of total yards and turnover differential. Tampa Bay has given up 125 more yards per game on average. Their 16 hits tells me they go for broke to pressure the quarterback, thus giving up big plays. The Giants are +4 in turnovers, will the Bucs are Even. Another interesting stat is red zone conversions against. In one fewer chance, Tampa Bay has a 16% conversion rate against, while the Giants have an 86% conversion rate against.
This game should be close, and I wouldn't be surprised at an upset. Still, this should be a shootout. Final score 35-31 New York.
Cleveland at Baltimore
The offensive stats that jump off the page are Baltimore averages 170 more yards per a game, and have an 88% conversion rate in the red zone. Cleveland's rate is 33%, in five fewer opportunities. The Browns have not done a good job protecting Brady Quinn, as he's been hit 12 times this season, with a 75% sack rate per hit. Conversely, Baltimore has done an excellent job at protecting Joe Flacco, as he's only been hit four times all season.
Defensively, both teams have done a good job at hitting the quarterback, as both have nine hits. The stats that push this side of the ball into the Ravens favor is yards against (on average Cleveland allows about 50 more per game), turnovers (Even compared to -4), and most importantly red zone conversions. Baltimore has allowed only a 28% rate against, while Cleveland's is a whopping 55%.
This game should be a route. Final score 41-20 Baltimore.
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