1. New England (12-4): The return of Tom Brady has, an obvious, major impact upon this team. He's a future Hall of Famer, and has a chip on his shoulder. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still at their respective Wide Receiver positions, giving Brady the same targets he had in 2007. I don't expect Brady's numbers to be at those record levels, however he will end the season as one of the top two fantasy quarterbacks.
The running game should be effective, as Coach Bill Belichek rotates four starting quality backs in Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, and Kevin Faulk. The rotation of running backs will benefit the team, as each player will be fresh with limited touches. This hurts for fantasy purposes, because each back will have his ceiling limited. I was surprised Taylor received the goal-line carry on Monday, given his age and past injuries.
Defensively, there a lot of new faces. Former stars are gone, such as Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, and Richard Seymour, replaced by younger, more athletic players. It should become better over time, but expect some growing pains with so many new players in key spots.
Prediction: This team makes a deep run in the play-offs- ultimately winning the Super Bowl.
2. New York Jets (9-7): After watching the Eagles preseason game, I was impressed how Rookie Quarterback Mark Sanchez drove the team down the field against the second team defense. The first game against Houston did nothing to change this prediction. Sanchez has several young targets to throw to, such as David Clowney, Jerecho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, and Tight End Dustin Keller. I'll get into the running game in the next paragraph, but Sanchez and the receiving core is no better than bye week fill ins, and Cotchery is at best a flex option. However, I believe Keller will break out this season from the Tight End spot.
The Running Backs are strong for the Jets. Thomas Jones is a solid number two Running Back, while Leon Washington is a candidate for a breakout season. Coach Rex Ryan promised in the preseason he would receive additional touches, and in Week 1, Washington touched the ball 19 times. Washington reminds me of a young Brian Westbrook, meaning he's a threat in both the passing and running games. Preseason hyped rookie Shonn Green will not have a huge impact on this team, at least this season, barring injury. The players ahead of him on the depth chart are just that much better.
Coach Rex Ryan was the defensive mastermind in Baltimore for years. Bringing in players, such as Bart Scott and Jim Leonard will toughen an already strong defense. Leon Washington returns kicks, so this defense is a good fantasy play, and should end the season as a top-ten fantasy defense.
Prediction: This team just misses the playoffs, but will be a force to reckon with, as Sanchez develops.
3. Miami (8-8): This is one team I predict will have the greatest drop-off from last year to this. They won a lot of close games based on turnover rate and trickery. Last season, they were plus 17 in the giveaway/takeaway statistic, and brought the Wildcat fad into the league. Quarterback Chad Pennington is a nice player, but has a weak arm, and he needs to play a nearly perfect game for this team to succeed. The Wide Receivers are young, and haven't distinguished themselves yet. Ted Ginn, Jr. is the big play threat, but doesn't get nearly enough touches to be a consistent fantasy option. Greg Carmillio is coming off a major knee surgery. Davone Bess had seven receptions on Sunday against Atlanta, and could be an interesting flex/bye week option in point per reception leagues.
The running game is solid with Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams. Both run the ball well and can catch it out of the backfield. Brown has tended to be over-drafted in fantasy drafts, mostly due to that five Touchdown game against New England last season. These two players are very good flex options, since this team prefers to run the ball, and they split touches.
The defense should still be solid. Coach Tony Sparano is a Bill Parcells disciple, and defense is a corner stone to his teams. Also, re-acquiring Jason Taylor should strengthen the front seven.
Prediction: This team might improve from a talent standpoint, but with a first place schedule, it will be tough on them to be better than .500.
4. Buffalo (7-9): Based upon the four following facts, this team can be a recipe for disaster: a no-huddle offense that didn't score any touchdowns in the preseason, firing the offensive coordinator ten days before the start of the season, no Running Back Marshawn Lynch, and acquiring of petulant Wide Receiver Terrell Owens. Give Coach Dick Juron credit- he stuck to his guns and his team should have beaten New England on Monday.
Quarterback Trent Edwards should be a good bye week fill in at quarterback. His receivers are solid, in Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. To me Evans, is too much of a boom or bust player, and I don't have him on any of my teams, but he will have a couple of huge games over the course of the season. Owens has become overrated, as his cultural icon status has grown over the years. He's 36, and his drops have become increasingly noticeable. He's no more a top fantasy receiver. He's more of a number two fantasy wideout.
Fred Jackson looked solid, if not spectacular, on Monday. He runs between the tackles well, and can catch passes out of the backfield. He has two more starts guaranteed ahead of him, as Marshawn Lynch is serving his suspension. He may become the Leon Washington to Lynch's Thomas Jones. This should be an interesting one-two punch as the season progresses.
The defense was impressive against the Patriots, but Paul Puslusny injured his arm, and may miss significant time, which hurts their run defense. This is not a team I would be comfortable with as a fantasy defense.
Prediction: This team makes things interesting, but will finish yet another season at 7-9.
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