Buffalo at Carolina
The stats surprised me, as I analyzed the numbers. Both teams are close in terms of yardage, total red zone chances, allowed over 50% conversion rate in red zone chances against. Both teams have trouble maintaining possession of the ball. The numbers that have me leaning towards Carolina are quarterback hits allowed (47! allowed by the Bills) and Buffalo's in ability to convert their red zone chances into touchdowns. Plus, Trent Edwards is out-due to the pressure. Final score 20-10 Carolina.
Chicago at Cincinnati
I expect a close one here. This is the second best game on the slate this week. The numbers are virtually identical for pressure, yards, and red zone chances for and against. Cincinnati has been slightly better in their red zone chances, both for and against, but the key is turnovers. Chicago is -1, while the Bengals are -3. I expect a hard fought game, but the Bears will prevail. Final score 24-21 Chicago.
Atlanta at Dallas
Typically, I like teams coming off their bye weeks, but the numbers skew too much in Atlanta's favor. Granted, Dallas does average 90 more yards per game on offense, but Atlanta keeps Matt Ryan clean, only seven hits through five games, is much more efficient offensively and defensively in the red zone, and have a huge advantage in turnover differential (+5 to -4). Final score 28-17 Atlanta.
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