Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Week 5 NFL Preview- Part 2

Same breakdown as the previous post.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
I just heard Donovan McNabb is going to play on Sunday, so his experience and presence will be welcome. The big differences in these teams is total yards both for and against, as the Eagles have gained over 100 yards per game, while the Bucs have allowed 130 more yards per game. Also, the Eagles have generated moderate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the the Bucs have allowed a whopping 30 hits on their passers through just four games. The Birds should win this game handily. Final score 35-10 Philadelphia.

Washington at Carolina
A game between two bad teams. Both teams have had trouble moving the ball and each have allowed nine quarterback sacks. Washington has a minimal yards per game, while pressuring the opposing quarterback more successfully. Also, the Panthers are an abysmal -8 in turnover differential, but that number is skewed because of the opener. The numbers are slightly more in the Redskins favor, but I tend to favor teams coming off their bye week. Final score 16-13 Carolina.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
This should be a good game. Both teams are at the top of their division, get after the opposing quarterback, and are efficient in red zone, while effective at stiffling the opposing teams from scoring touchdowns. The differences between the teams are Baltimore's gained 100 more yards per game, while Cincinnati's allowed 50 more yards per game, and turnover differential (-2 for Cincinnait, +2 for Baltimore). Those differences sway the game in the Ravens direction. Final score 28-17 Baltimore.

Pittsburgh at Detroit
I was shocked at looking at the numbers. These teams are a lot closer than at first glance. Both have allowed a high sack rate, have negative turnover differential, and are about 50% in their red zone conversions. The difference is in the yards, as the Steelers have gained almost 70 more per game, while the Lions have allowed 80 more per game. Boy, the Steelers miss Troy Polamalu. Final score 24-20 Pittsburgh.

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