Week 4 Game Previews- Part 1

We're a quarter of the way into the season, and bye weeks are here.  Carolina, Arizona, Atlanta, and Philadelphia are off this week.  I'll jump into the previews.

Baltimore at New England

On paper this seems to be a tough game to call.  Both teams are well-coached and have winning records.  Baltimore's gained and given up more yards than New England, and the pressure both teams have given to opposing quarterbacks has been relatively the same.  The differences are on quarterback hits allowed, red zone conversions (71% for Baltimore, 30% for New England), and turnover differential (Baltimore's caused 3 additional turnovers).  The Patriots have allowed Tom Brady to be hit 15 times this season, while Joe Flacco's only been hit six times.  I think the game will be close, but Baltimore prevails.  Final score 24-21 Baltimore.

Tampa Bay at Washington

This is a game both teams need coming off of devastating loses.  One glance at the numbers tells me the Bucs can't protect the quarterback, allowing 26 hits, and are a turnstile on defense, allowing about 110 more yards per game than Washington.  The Redskins numbers aren't all that impressive, but Tampa Bay's are awful.  Also, the Redskins face a new quarterback starting his first NFL game.  I think it'll be ugly, but Washington wins.  Final score 16-7 Washington.

Tennessee at Jacksonville

A divisional game for these teams, so they should be up for it.  The Titans are playing for their football lives, as starting 0-4 probably kills their playoff chances.  Looking at the numbers, the turnover differential is in Jacksonville's favor (+2 compared to -5).  Initially, that was the stat that had me lean towards the Jaguars, but the other numbers held me up.  The Jaguars have allowed 18 hits to David Garrard thus far, allowed on average 50 additional yards per game, and have a 67% rate red zone chances against.  Also, I think Jeff Fisher is a much better coach than Jack Del Rio.  Final score 24-13 Tennessee.

Oakland at Houston

This is a game between the worst quarterback against the one of the worst defenses in the league.  Also, Houston's allowed way too many hits on Matt Schaub with 22.  The Texans have gained more than 110 yards per game than Oakland.  But the stat that hurts the Raiders is the number of red zone opportunities allowed- 12.  While they've allowed five to convert into touchdowns, Houston's done a decent job of capitalizing with a 62% rate.  No matter how poorly Houston's defense plays, I can't see how Russell will match points with Schaub.  Final score 35-10 Houston.