I believe all the games will be close this weekend. This one is no exception. Both teams play solid defense, and run the ball well. Protection is about even, as the Bengals have allowed more hits and the Jets have allowed more sacks. The Bengals have created more pressure with more sacks and more hits. The yards gained is virtually even, as is red zone touchdown. The Jets allowed 50 fewer yards game. Their red zone conversion rate against at 42% is slightly better than Cincinnati's at 48%. Turnover differential is close. The Jets are +1, while Cincinnati is even. However, New York has committed five more turnovers over the course of the season. A lot people are picking the Jets, and it's more on their blowout over a vanilla Bengals team last week. I see it slightly in their favor from a numbers prospective. I'm choosing Cincinnati for the three reasons. The return of Domata Peko is key for the Bengals. He's their run stuffer, which is important to slowing New York's running game. A fresh Cedric Benson, following the week off, will be able to pound the Jets front. And the most importantly, the quarterbacks. People forget that Mark Sanchez is a.) just a rookie, b.) turned the ball over 20 times, and c.) Carson Palmer, right now, is a much better quarterback. That said, it will be a low-scoring affair. Final score 17-13 Cincinnati.
Philadelphia at Dallas
Another NFC East showdown. These teams are closer than last week's game indicated. The Eagles protect better, while Dallas generates greater pressure. The Cowboy have gained 40 more yards per game, but the defenses have allowed approximately the same number of yards. Red zone touchdowns are also similar, though the Cowboys have a slight edge. The strengths of these two teams are in the form of red zone defense (Dallas) and turnover differential (Philadelphia). The crux of the game is quarterback play- meaning Donovan McNabb hits the big play or Tony Romo protecting the ball. Right now, I give a very minimal edge to Romo. This should be a high-scoring affair, because I think Andy Reid will commit to the run more than 10 times (that's kind because McNabb had two scrambles). In the end, Dallas has a few more plusses and momentum. Final score 38-37 Dallas.
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