The playoff darlings versus their benefactor. If anyone can recall, Indy laying down in week 16 led the Jets to making the playoffs, since they needed to win their final two games. Will it come back to bite them? It very well could. The Jets have limited their mistakes, forced turnovers, and took advantage of those turnovers. Both lines protect very well. Mark Sanchez has taken over double the sacks that Peyton Manning has taken. That's due to Manning's quick decision making and releasing the ball. I was surprised to see that the Colts have generate more sacks and hits. Not many more, but it was a surprise, considering that Rex Ryan has been known to unleash the hounds over the course of a game. The Colts have averaged 40 more yards per game, while allowing an eye-popping 90 more per game. That's how stingy the Jets defense is, yet Darrelle Revis and Bart Scott are the only ones who get the pub. (Where's the support for David Harris? You would think the New York media would have dubbed him the next Ray Lewis by now.) Indianapolis is much more proficient at scoring red zone touchdowns, while the reverse is true on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets. The Jets are +1 and the Colts are +5 over the course of the season. However, the Sanchez turnover machine hasn't appeared yet- I know he threw a pick last week, but not multiple game changing turnovers- but that has break at some point. Also, Indy was leading before Manning was removed for the whole half. Sanchez couldn't move the ball against second and third teamers. Those scores the Jets had were on defense and special teams in the second half. I think the game will be low-scoring, but the Jets have to score more than 21 points to win this one, because Manning should lead three touchdown scoring drives for the Colts. Final score 21-17 Indianapolis.
Minnesota at New Orleans
This is the game every fan of the NFL has been salivating for to occur for months, except if you are a fan of Philadelphia, Dallas, Arizona, or Green Bay. It features two great quarterbacks, with solid receiving corps, and terrific running games. There are star players all over the field. What more can you want out of an NFL game?! New Orleans protects much better than Minnesota, while the Vikings have created more pressure over the course of the season than the Saints. An important note, will be the effectiveness of the blitz for the Saints, because if they can get to Brett Favre their odds of winning improve dramatically. On the other hand, the Vikings front four are the best defensive line in the league. If they can pressure Brees without sending extra pass rushers, Minnesota's odds improve dramatically. In terms of total yards, the Saints have gained 20 more per game, while allowing 50 more. These two teams are two of the best in the league scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Minnesota gets a slight edge, because they are more efficient. On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings have a big edge at preventing red zone scores. Turnovers is where it's tricky to pick one. Minnesota has protected the ball, with ten fewer turnovers, but there are two caveats here. Favre's been known to throw picks in big games, and Adrian Peterson had fumblitis over the course of his career. Also, the Saints are more effective at creating turnovers. Let's give a slight edge to the Saints. I see this as a high-scoring affair, in which either team can win. Final score 35-31 Minnesota.
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